Almonty's Tungsten Calculus: Washington's Supply Chain Pivot Meets a Heated Valuation Debate

US export ban on tungsten scrap strengthens Almonty's non-Chinese supply case, but valuation concerns persist as stock trades at 70x earnings.

The geopolitical chessboard is rearranging itself around tungsten, and Almonty Industries finds itself positioned on a square that Washington is increasingly eager to occupy. The US Commerce Department's newly enacted export ban on tungsten scrap and battery waste — a move designed to shore up domestic strategic supplies after Chinese export controls sent Rotterdam tungsten prices soaring by 800 percent — adds yet another layer to a supply narrative that has been building for months.

That narrative begins in earnest on January 1, 2027, when a Pentagon directive takes effect requiring tungsten to be sourced from non-Chinese origins. Almonty's Sangdong mine in South Korea stands as one of the few Western operations capable of filling that gap, and the latest export restrictions reinforce what CEO Lewis Black has argued all along: the market has yet to fully price in the value of the company's non-Chinese tungsten assets.

A Friday Pullback in Context

The stock gave back 3.9 percent on Friday, closing at EUR 15.57, after media reports flagged the shares as significantly overvalued. The trigger was a quantitative screening model that calculated a fair value of 37.6 against a current price-to-earnings ratio of 70.3 — a multiple that dwarfs the US mining sector average of 21.1.

Yet the pullback looks modest against the broader trajectory. The shares remain up 63 percent over the past month and have gained 96 percent since the start of the year. Over twelve months, the stock has more than quadrupled. The 30-day annualized volatility of 92 percent underscores just how feverish trading has become, but the recent dip reads more like a necessary breather than a reversal of fortune.

Institutional Votes of Confidence

While valuation skeptics dominate the commentary, professional investors have been quietly adding exposure. Nykredit A/S disclosed a newly opened position of 3,500 shares on August 21, and the Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio earlier revealed a holding of 109,121 shares worth approximately $1.81 million. These accumulations suggest a meaningful segment of the institutional base views the multiple as defensible given the operational momentum at Sangdong.

The company's own buyback program — up to 14.4 million shares, roughly five percent of outstanding capital, for up to $300 million through August 2029 — further undercuts the notion that management considers the stock expensive. Launched last month, the program represents a substantial commitment of capital at current levels.

Insider Filings and Structural Shifts

Amid the political developments, director Kyungrok Kwon filed nine regulatory disclosures on Thursday regarding changes to his share ownership. Such filings are mandatory under Canada's disclosure system and carry limited market significance on their own, but they do indicate ongoing movement in the shareholder register alongside the buyback activity.

The board has also moved to consolidate the company's listing, abandoning its Australian and Canadian quotations in favor of a primary Nasdaq listing. The streamlined structure could enhance liquidity and visibility among US investors — a consideration that gains relevance as institutional demand grows.

A Rival Emerges in Nevada

The competitive landscape is not standing still. Western Star Resources has completed a broad 3D magnetic inversion survey on its Nevada properties, identifying target zones that link high-grade samples with deeper intrusive bodies. Should those findings prove economically viable, the global supply picture — currently shaped largely by Sangdong — could eventually gain another source. For Almonty, this is not an immediate threat but a reminder that its market position is not permanently uncontested.

The Road Ahead

Technically, the stock remains firmly above its medium-term trendlines, trading 18 percent above its 50-day average and 23 percent above its 200-day average. It sits roughly a quarter below its 52-week high of EUR 20.61 reached in April.

The Washington export ban changes little in the immediate term, but it cements the strategic framework within which Almonty operates. The question of whether the valuation debate ultimately caps the rally or merely marks a pause will likely resolve only when Sangdong's ramp-up translates into tangible sales figures. For now, the company finds itself at the intersection of a tightening supply chain, a demanding valuation, and a political environment that keeps rewarding its positioning.