Almonty's Tungsten Balancing Act: US Export Curbs Meet a Fast-Maturing Growth Story
Published on 08/11/2026 at 10:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The tungsten market is sending Almonty Industries in two directions at once, and investors are trying to figure out which signal matters more.
A new US export restriction on tungsten scrap takes effect August 27, a 12-month measure requiring that 100 percent of monthly sales volumes go to domestic buyers. The rule targets a trade flow that was already stalling — US scrap exports totaled roughly 2,183 tonnes in the first half of 2026, barely below the 2,202 tonnes shipped in the comparable 2025 period. Japan, Germany and South Korea, the traditional buyers of that material, will now have to source elsewhere.
The tightening has already shown up in pricing, though not in the direction producers would prefer. Tungsten carbide inserts traded between $28 and $34 per pound in late July, down 13 percent month-on-month for inserts and 12 percent for round steels. That near-term softness weighed on sentiment around tungsten-linked equities, including Almonty, whose Frankfurt-listed shares came under pressure during Monday's session after a softer start.
Yet the same regulatory shift that is pressuring prices today could strengthen the negotiating hand of Western-aligned producers tomorrow. For Almonty, one of the few meaningful tungsten producers operating outside China, the calculus is genuinely two-sided.
A Stock in Motion
The Frankfurt listing has been anything but quiet. After a 5.14 percent gain the previous session, shares climbed another 3.83 percent on Tuesday to €12.74. That capped a weekly advance of nearly 28 percent, driven by tight supply dynamics, the ramp-up of the company's Sangdong mine in South Korea, and a delisting timetable that is reshaping how the stock trades.
The medium-term picture remains more complicated. Over three months, the shares are still down 25.92 percent, though they have gained 58.21 percent since the start of the year. At the Nasdaq, the stock traded between $13.66 and $14.75 on August 10, with volume of 6.05 million shares — below the 8.05 million average.
Market participants are split on what comes next. Some are positioning for fresh highs; others fear renewed selling pressure as the company completes its exit from the Toronto Stock Exchange and the Australian Securities Exchange. Almonty has already left the TSX. Trading in its CDI interests on the ASX ends August 28, 2026, with delisting effective September 1. The company is consolidating its listing around Nasdaq and Frankfurt.
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The Sangdong Story
The fundamental picture, however, is improving faster than the share price history suggests. The upcoming quarterly report is the next catalyst, with analysts projecting earnings of $0.10 per share — a 300 percent year-on-year increase — on revenue of $52.66 million, a jump of 912.6 percent.
That explosive growth projection traces directly to Sangdong. In July, Almonty began processing ore at the South Korean mine, marking the transition from development to producing saleable tungsten concentrate. The company had stockpiled ore ahead of the milestone: roughly 120,000 tonnes grading 0.24 percent tungsten trioxide sat at the site at the end of the first quarter of 2026, with another 19,700 tonnes at 0.35 percent added during the second quarter. Total inventory now stands at about 139,700 tonnes.
First-quarter results already hinted at the trajectory. Revenue rose 221 percent to $25.4 million on record tungsten prices, while operating cash flow swung to positive $9.7 million — a sharp reversal from the $4.4 million the company burned in the year-earlier quarter.
Looking further back, the third quarter of 2025 showed revenue of C$8.70 million, up roughly 28 percent year-on-year, with net income of C$33.19 million — more than 700 percent above the prior-year figure.
Supply Tightens From Multiple Directions
The supply-side argument for Almonty extends beyond the US export rule. Industry observers see no change coming to China's dual-use export policy, meaning the West's tungsten shortage is likely to persist over the medium to long term. New safety and environmental inspections across several Chinese mining provinces add another constraint — such checks have historically led to reduced output.
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The Sangdong production start therefore arrives into a market where supply remains structurally tight. The coming weeks will be defined by two key dates: the quarterly earnings release and the completion of the ASX delisting on September 1. How the US export rule reshapes global tungsten flows — and whether Almonty can capture pricing power from the disruption — will determine whether the stock's recent momentum has staying power.
