Almonty's Sangdong Restart Meets a Skeptical Tape as Stifel and Goldman Diverge

Almonty stock trades at EUR 12.03 pre-market, down 21% in 30 days, as investors weigh Sangdong Phase II ramp-up against Stifel and Goldman's split ratings.

Almonty has finally cleared the administrative underbrush that had been distracting investors, but the market is in no mood to celebrate. The tungsten miner's shares changed hands at EUR 12.03 pre-market, down 21 percent over the past 30 days and 42 percent below their 52-week high — a retreat that says as much about receding euphoria as it does about the operational risks still ahead.

At the heart of the story is Sangdong, the South Korean complex that has resumed producing tungsten concentrate after decades of dormancy. First bags of saleable material are now ready for export, a milestone that proves the plant works. What it does not yet prove is that Almonty can convert those early sacks into sustained, profitable large-scale output — the stage the mining sector has always regarded as its most treacherous.

Housekeeping Done, Focus Returns to the Ore Body

Two recent announcements have removed lingering legal and governance questions. On Friday, Pure Tungsten Inc. published a corrective statement as part of a settlement confirming that Tiger Kim never held an executive, board, or director position at Almonty; his work as an independent contractor ended on December 31, 2015. Separately, effective September 29, Almonty appointed PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as its new auditor, succeeding Zeifmans LLP, which had resigned the mandate. Management stressed there were no disagreements over accounting or audit procedures — a point worth making, since auditor changes tend to trigger reflexive suspicion on capital markets.

Neither item poses a structural threat. Both are the kind of administrative clean-up any growing mining company has to work through. The fundamental value, as ever, is being created in the processing plants in South Korea.

Phase II Is the Number That Matters

Management is targeting completion of Sangdong's second expansion phase in 2027. Once finished, throughput capacity is slated to reach up to 1.2 million tonnes of ore per year, translating into potential annual output of more than 460,000 MTU. Hitting those figures would underwrite future revenue growth and, if achieved on schedule, meaningfully expand Almonty's share of the global tungsten market while strengthening cash flow.

The processing plant is already running seven days a week on multiple shifts, with preparations underway to move to round-the-clock operation. That ramp-up timetable — not the legal or audit headlines — is the single most important gauge by which market participants will judge the credibility of the long-term strategy.

Two Banks, Two Very Different Price Tags

How much optimism the equity can still carry is precisely where the analyst community has split. Stifel initiated coverage on September 24 with a Buy rating and a USD 25.00 price target, leaning on the potential of the South Korean deposit if production scales as planned. Goldman Sachs took a markedly more cautious line, assigning a Neutral rating with a USD 13.00 target, arguing that the market has already priced in both the favorable tungsten backdrop and the demanding timeline.

The gap between two established houses lays bare the valuation dilemma. Bulls point to future output; skeptics point to what is already discounted.

Buybacks Shrink the Share Count

Almonty has also been active on the capital-management front. Roughly a week ago the company cancelled 2,914,739 common shares that had been repurchased for about USD 48 million, and management intends to introduce an automatic buyback plan for trading blackout periods. Such moves permanently reduce the number of shares outstanding — meaning that if operating earnings rise as planned, existing holders stand to benefit through an improved earnings per share.

The flip side is that buybacks absorb liquidity that might otherwise be available should unexpected cost overruns emerge at the mine site. Investors are therefore pressing for reliable evidence that each construction stage is progressing smoothly.

What Could Break the Thesis

Geological or technical problems that push Phase II beyond 2027 would invite painful cost escalation, and missing the 1.2-million-tonne annual capacity target would weigh on profitability. On the chart, the stock trades well below its 200-day moving average of EUR 13.66, a technical setback that signals persistent caution ahead of the heavy capital spending still to come.

For now, the fundamental setup remains intact as long as the Phase II build stays on schedule and no delays are reported. Should that timetable slip, or should budget overruns surface, further downside looks likely. The next concrete date on the calendar is the annual general meeting, where shareholders must formally vote on the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as auditor. Until then, construction progress at Sangdong remains the decisive driver of the share price.