Almonty's Sangdong Ramp-Up Meets a Washington Deadline

Western defense planners have handed the tungsten market a hard date to work with. From January 1, 2027, U.S. authorities will bar procurement of tungsten components and alloys sourced, smelted, or processed in China, Russia, North Korea, or Iran — a rule that lands on top of an already tight supply picture. Between January and July 2026, the global reference price for tungsten trioxide climbed roughly 310%.

The numbers behind that squeeze are stark. Of the 85,000 tonnes mined worldwide in 2025, about 67,000 tonnes came out of Chinese operations. The United States, meanwhile, has not pulled tungsten from domestic mines in years. For Western processors, the search for long-term supply outside Beijing's orbit has shifted from a strategic talking point to an operational necessity.

A Korean Mine Steps Into the Gap

Almonty Industries is staking its future on that gap. The company is ramping up the historic Sangdong mine in South Korea's Gangwon province, where ore feed began entering a newly built processing plant in June 2026. The goal is straightforward: market-grade tungsten concentrate, produced in a jurisdiction Western buyers can work with.

Funding for the scale-up came through an $800 million convertible bond issue, maturing in 2031 and carrying a 2.25% annual coupon. Management has used that liquidity to expand mining capacity, and over the summer it also streamlined its capital markets footprint — delisting from Toronto and Australia to concentrate trading on the Nasdaq.

The payoff is starting to show in the accounts. Quarterly revenue, reported just over a month ago, rose year-on-year to $43.0 million. The shares have responded: Almonty currently trades at EUR 13.78, up 73% since the start of the year.

A Pension Fund Places Its Bet

Institutional money is taking notice. The Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio acquired 109,121 Almonty shares during the second quarter of 2026, a position worth roughly $1.81 million according to a published fund report. Moves of that kind from large public pension funds are typically read as a sign of building institutional confidence, even if they rarely explain a stock's day-to-day direction.

The analyst community has been similarly constructive. Jefferies initiated coverage in early September with a Buy rating and a $26.25 price target — well above current levels. As of a September 1 tally, five analysts covered the stock with a consensus Buy rating and an average twelve-month target of $27.00.

Volatility Without a Headline

Yet the trading itself has been anything but calm. Friday's session ended at EUR 13.40 after a 6.1% drop, close to the 50-day average of EUR 13.34. Over seven trading days the stock has shed 11%, even as it still holds a 69% gain for the year. Within a matter of sessions it first moved more than 10% higher, then gave much of that back.

Media coverage has found no company-specific news to account for either leg of the swing. Instead, the moves are attributed to a blend of sentiment, persistent analyst tailwinds, and operational progress at Sangdong.

Technically, the picture reads as neutral to mildly oversold. Thirty-day annualized volatility sits at 75%, the RSI is at 43, and the stock trades roughly 35% below its 52-week high of EUR 20.61.

What remains unresolved for investors is whether the Sangdong ramp-up can eventually outweigh the short-term noise. The recent institutional buying and the steady analyst support suggest part of the market is already betting that it will.