Almonty's Sangdong Output Is Real — the Revenue Behind It Is a 2026 Story

Almonty's Sangdong plant produced first tungsten concentrate on 29 September, but DA Davidson sees Sangdong revenue and EBITDA only in Q4 2026.

Almonty has crossed the line from development to production at Sangdong, but the distance between a running plant and a booked sale is where the investment case now lives. The company confirmed on 29 September that its processing facility had turned out its first tungsten concentrate, with the plant operating 13 hours a day, seven days a week. Management has flagged a move toward continuous operation, and development of the project's second phase is already underway.

That operational milestone, however, does not translate into near-term earnings. Analysts at DA Davidson, in a note dated yesterday, expect revenue and EBITDA from Sangdong to arrive only in the fourth quarter of 2026. Two mechanical factors drive that timeline: a fixed date attached to the export permit, and the lag between a shipment leaving port and the sale being recognized in the accounts.

The gap between a running mill and a reported sale

For shareholders, the distinction matters more than the headline of "first production." A plant that is processing ore proves technical capability; it says nothing about when cash lands on the income statement. DA Davidson's forecast separates the start of revenue recognition from the later point at which the first and second phases are expected to reach their intended operating levels in 2027. Early sales would mark the economic transition, but not the completion of the ramp-up — which keeps both the ongoing optimization of the plant and the logistics of delivery squarely in view.

The same logic applies to the company's own disclosures. Lewis Black, Almonty's chief executive, described a ramp-up in progress on 29 September, not a steady state already achieved. The existing 13-hour schedule and the targeted continuous operation are different stages of development, and treating them as equivalent would overstate how far the project has actually traveled.

Two tungsten markets, two price signals

The pricing backdrop is anything but uniform. Media reports on 2 October described Chinese and Western tungsten markets moving in opposite directions, with the Western APT range quoted at $2,700–2,900 per mtu of WO3. That divergence argues against applying Chinese price moves across every sales market.

The broader market tone has been weak. A reference price for tungstenite concentrate sat 67.92% below its 12 March record, according to a market report published today, weighed down by softer end-user demand, inventory pressure, and ample fourth-quarter production quotas. Reports yesterday again pointed to weakness in China, citing sluggish final demand alongside supply, stockpile, and quota factors.

This is sector context, not a company-specific trigger. It does not establish why Almonty's shares moved, nor does it reveal what prices the company will actually fetch on its own sales. Market indicators and a single producer's realized pricing are not interchangeable.

What the 19 October investor day needs to answer

Almonty has scheduled an investor day for 19 October, with a tungsten market overview and operational updates on individual mines on the agenda. The announced webcast is set to address both halves of the investor question at once: where the market environment is heading, and how the operations are progressing.

Those two threads are inseparable for Almonty. A higher operating rate can demonstrate operational progress, but the revenue it generates still depends on selling conditions. The ramp-up is therefore neither an all-clear for the tungsten market nor does the market's softness render the reported operational gains meaningless. What remains unresolved is how reliably the company converts production into shipments, recognized revenue, and operating profit — and DA Davidson's expectation is a forecast, not a reported figure. Sangdong has delivered its first proof of production. The export process, the revenue recognition, and the climb to the intended operating level are the steps that will connect that technical achievement to the project's economic performance.