Almonty's Sangdong Mine Enters Commercial Production as Buyback and Analyst Coverage Reshape the Story

Almonty started commercial tungsten production at Sangdong as Stifel rated it Buy with a US$25 target and Goldman Sachs went Neutral at US$13.

Almonty Industries has moved into a new phase as a producer, not just a developer. Commercial tungsten output began at its South Korean Sangdong operation roughly a week ago, following final certification of the plant — a milestone that coincided with the launch of analyst coverage from two of Wall Street's better-known names.

Stifel initiated on the stock with a Buy rating and a US$25 price target, while Goldman Sachs struck a more measured tone on Thursday, assigning a Neutral rating with a US$13 target. Media accounts credited the Stifel note in particular with driving fresh demand for the shares.

The split verdict reflects a genuine divide over how quickly Almonty can convert its expansion plans into cash flow. Stifel's bull case rests on the company's strategic position in Western supply chains: the analyst argues that the parallel build-out of Sangdong and Panasqueira could make Almonty the leading Western tungsten producer by the end of 2028. Tungsten's hardness makes it indispensable to high-tech manufacturing and defense applications.

A Market Reshaped by Chinese Export Controls

The backdrop to that thesis is a tungsten market under severe strain. China accounted for roughly 80% of global mine production in 2025 and held about 85% of downstream capacity for refining ammonium paratungstate, according to Stifel analyst Brock Cannon. Prices for the industrial metal have climbed about 775% since the start of 2025, following the introduction of Chinese export controls.

That squeeze has sent large industrial and defense buyers hunting for dependable sources outside China — precisely the gap Almonty is positioning itself to fill. Stifel's Cannon estimates that Sangdong, once both phases are complete, could cover around 40% of Western and allied tungsten supply.

Phase I commercial production is now running at the South Korean site. A planned second phase would nearly double annual ore throughput to 1.2 million tonnes in 2027. In Portugal, the company is pushing capacity growth at Panasqueira, with management also eyeing a planned tungsten oxide facility as an additional avenue of potential.

Spanish Tailings Add a Second Revenue Stream

Operationally, Almonty has paired the restart of idled capacity with a deliberate effort to monetize stockpiled material. On September 17, the company announced a multi-year supply agreement with Wolfram Bergbau und Hütten AG, a subsidiary of the Sandvik group. Structured on a take-or-pay basis, the deal covers at least roughly 1,720 tonnes of contained WO?, sourced from tailings at the Los Santos mine in Spain, and carries a conditional advance payment to Almonty of US$3 million.

Buyback Signals Board Confidence

Alongside the operating progress, the board approved a share repurchase program authorizing up to US$300 million, covering as many as 14.4 million of the company's own shares over a 36-month window.

Investors responded positively. The stock rose 11% in Friday trading in Germany to close at EUR 12.09, lifting the company's market value to the equivalent of EUR 2.74 billion. Since the start of the year, the shares are up 52%. Even so, more cautious voices on the analyst side continue to flag execution risk tied to the ongoing expansion projects.