Almonty's Q3 Windfall Is Mostly Paper — and Stifel Is Already Pricing In the Cost Side

Almonty's third-quarter 2026 results land at an awkward intersection: a tungsten price environment doing enormous favours for revenue, and a cost trajectory that has already prompted Stifel to cut its price target — while keeping its buy rating intact.

The headline numbers are striking. Revenue reached C$41.89 million, up 381% year on year (one source rounds the gain to 382%). Mining operating income came in at C$26 million. Net profit of C$50.23 million ran 51.2% higher than a year earlier, and adjusted EBITDA was positive at C$14.6 million.

The Composition Question

That net profit figure deserves a closer look. Embedded within it are non-cash revaluation gains of C$47.9 million — meaning the bulk of the bottom line reflects accounting marks rather than cash generation. Investors weighing the quality of the quarter will find the adjusted operating result and the EBITDA line more instructive than the headline profit.

The revenue surge itself has a clear driver. The European average price for APT stood at $2,800 per MTU in the most recently reported quarter, a 355% jump year on year. Higher tungsten prices have done much of the heavy lifting — provided Almonty can convert those proceeds into operating profit without letting costs eat the difference.

Buybacks and the Sangdong Ramp

Alongside the numbers, Almonty repurchased and cancelled roughly 2.91 million common shares during the quarter at a weighted average price of US$16.58 apiece. A further 703,000 shares were bought back after the quarter closed.

On the operational front, the company reported first concentrate production at Sangdong in September, and loaded its first shipping container after the period ended. CEO commentary puts more than 90% of Phase I production under contract. The planned Phase II expansion at Sangdong is designed to nearly double throughput capacity to 1.2 million tonnes annually — a growth lever that only pays off if the cost structure holds.

Stifel's Counterweight

That is precisely where Stifel's move matters. The broker trimmed its price target on higher cost assumptions but stood by its buy recommendation — a combination that signals fundamental confidence paired with a more cautious valuation. The tension between a strong tungsten price and rising expenses is now the central question for the equity story.

The stock gained 8.5% yesterday, closing at €7.47.

A Canadian Courtroom Running in Parallel

Separately from the operating picture, Almonty is entangled in litigation with Deutsche Rohstoff. The latter said on Wednesday it had filed suit in Canada against Almonty, seeking around US$67 million — including asserted rights to 3.5 million conversion shares and repayment of debt. Deutsche Rohstoff added that Almonty has filed its own claim against it, and that the two proceedings have been consolidated. The sums cited are the parties' claims, not amounts established by any court.