Almonty's Ohio Pension Windfall Meets a Market Still Hunting for a Narrative

Ohio's public pension fund bought 109,121 Almonty shares in Q2 2026, worth about USD 1.81 million, as the tungsten producer's stock stays volatile.

A large American public pension fund has quietly built a position in Almonty Industries, even as the tungsten producer's shares continue to swing violently without any single company-specific trigger to explain the moves.

The Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio acquired 109,121 Almonty shares during the second quarter of 2026, a stake worth roughly USD 1.81 million, according to a fund report cited in media coverage. Purchases of that kind by big public retirement systems are typically read as a vote of confidence in a stock, though they rarely account for day-to-day price action on their own.

That price action has been anything but calm. The shares closed Friday at EUR 13.40 after a 6.1 percent drop, landing almost exactly on their 50-day moving average of EUR 13.34. Over seven trading sessions the stock has shed 11 percent, yet it still holds a gain of around 69 percent for the year. The whipsaw cuts both ways: within just a few sessions the price first jumped more than 10 percent and then gave back a comparable amount. No company-specific news has surfaced to explain either leg, according to press accounts, which instead point to a blend of sentiment, persistent analyst tailwinds and operational progress at the Sangdong project in South Korea.

Analyst Support and a Pension Fund's Bet

The bullish analyst backdrop remains firmly in place. Jefferies initiated coverage in early September with a Buy rating and a USD 26.25 price target — well above the current trading level. As of a September 1 tally, five analysts covered the stock with a consensus Buy rating and an average twelve-month target of USD 27.00.

On the technical side, the picture is mixed rather than alarming. A 30-day annualized volatility reading of 75 percent underscores how jumpy the shares have been, while an RSI of 43 places the stock in neutral-to-slightly-oversold territory. Almonty is trading roughly 35 percent below its 52-week high of EUR 20.61.

In Germany, the stock has been changing hands at EUR 13.49, down 11 percent on a weekly basis. Earlier company news also left its mark: quarterly results published more than a month ago were followed by a 7.5 percent decline, and a buyback program announced about a month ago has coincided with a 4.5 percent drop since. Through all of that, the year-to-date advance stands at 70 percent.

Sangdong Shifts From Development to Production

What increasingly matters to the equity story is what happens underground in Gangwon Province. Sangdong's Phase I is in commissioning and gradual ramp-up, with the plant slated to process roughly 640,000 tonnes of ore annually once fully operational. An expansion permit is already in hand that could lift throughput to as much as 1.2 million tonnes.

Offtake arrangements largely remove the sales risk. A contract with Global Tungsten & Powders covers about 90 percent of planned Phase I output and guarantees minimum volumes of 210,000 MTU per year once ramp-up is complete. A price adjustment agreed in July meaningfully improved contractual revenue per unit, giving the operator predictable cash flow as it refines its processing facilities.

Commentary surrounding the company points to Sangdong transitioning into production of saleable tungsten concentrate — a shift that moves Almonty from the development phase into the ranks of producers. That framing comes from accompanying coverage rather than a standalone company announcement, but it aligns with the broader perception that operations are advancing even as the share price stays volatile.

Geopolitics, Delisting and the Road Ahead

The strategic backdrop is doing much of the heavy lifting for the investment case. China controls the bulk of global tungsten supply, while tighter Western rules on defense procurement are accelerating the search for alternatives. CEO Lewis Black pointed in late August to the widening gap between the Chinese and Western markets and to new US restrictions on scrap exports. Constrained supply outside China is underpinning historically high prices for the industrial metal and spurring development of new mines.

Washington's procurement restrictions, which take effect from 2027, create a protected market for producers operating outside China — structural demand that runs alongside Almonty's expansion plans in South Korea. Jefferies highlighted Sangdong's deposits, together with the Panasqueira and Browns Lake projects, as offering leverage to the reshoring of Western supply chains.

Almonty has also been tidying up its market footprint. On September 1 it delisted from the Australian Securities Exchange, where its shares had come to represent less than one percent of total capital, a move aimed at concentrating trading on its most liquid venues.

For investors, the open question is whether Sangdong's operational momentum can eventually outweigh the short-term noise. The recent institutional buying and the still-constructive analyst view suggest at least part of the market is already betting that it will.