Almonty's Korean Production Ramp Collides With a Two-Front Analyst Debate

Almonty shares surge 103% YTD as Sangdong mine ramps up; ASX delisting set for Sept 1, but analysts split on earnings outlook.

The tungsten producer's shares have been on a tear that few in the sector can match, but the story now hinges on how investors weigh a bullish buy rating against a cautious earnings revision. Almonty Industries suspended trading in its Chess Depositary Interests on the Australian Securities Exchange at Thursday's close, with the formal delisting set for September 1. The move follows the company's voluntary exit from the Toronto Stock Exchange in late July, leaving the Nasdaq as the primary venue for investors in Germany, Australia, and elsewhere.

The timing is hardly accidental. Almonty has spent the past several weeks repositioning itself squarely toward the US capital markets, and the operational catalyst is the ramp-up at its Sangdong mine in South Korea's Gangwon province. Processing facilities there have been producing tungsten concentrate since early July, and the stock has responded accordingly — climbing roughly 3.2 percent since last Wednesday alone as progress updates have flowed.

That momentum sits atop an already extraordinary run. The shares closed Thursday at €16.20, up 3.5 percent on the day, and have gained about 70 percent over the past 30 days. Year-to-date, the stock has more than doubled, with a gain of roughly 103 percent, while the twelve-month advance stands at an eye-catching 325 percent. The current price remains about 21 percent below the 52-week high of €20.61 reached in April, yet it trades comfortably above the 50-day moving average of €13.25 — a sign that the upward trajectory retains its footing despite the distance from the peak.

What makes the recent surge particularly notable is the breadth of catalysts behind it. In mid-August, the company authorized a share buyback program of up to $300 million, and the stock has added around 3 percent since that announcement. Second-quarter revenue jumped 498 percent to C$43.0 million, providing a fundamental counterweight to the share-price enthusiasm. The delisting from the ASX, meanwhile, is expected to consolidate liquidity at the remaining venues and trim administrative overhead — a rationale echoed by Max Cunningham, chief executive of the National Stock Exchange of Australia, who noted that four ASX Top 200 companies have already departed the exchange this month amid a broader global retreat from public listings.

The analyst community, however, is not of one mind. GBC AG issued a buy recommendation on Tuesday, endorsing the operational and strategic direction. Diamond Equity Research struck a more measured tone in an August 14 update, trimming its 2026 earnings estimate to $0.39 per share from $0.55 — even as it acknowledged the progress at Sangdong and the strength of the quarterly figures. That divergence leaves the stock's valuation narrative unresolved, with the next set of quarterly results likely to provide the first real test of which camp has the better read.

For holders who accessed the stock through the ASX CDIs, the September 1 delisting date is a firm deadline to shift their positions to the Nasdaq listing. The company had flagged the consolidation of its listing structure in its half-year report in August, and the suspension of CDI trading marks the final step in that process. With an annualized 30-day volatility of 91 percent, the shares remain a high-octane holding, but the combination of a producing mine, a generous buyback, and a simplified capital structure gives the bull case a tangible foundation that the bears have yet to fully counter.