Almonty's Buyback Signals Conviction as Analysts Split on Tungsten Producer's Trajectory

Almonty authorizes $300M share repurchase, but analysts trim earnings estimates as Sangdong mine ramps up production.

The tungsten producer Almonty Industries is presenting investors with a study in contrasts this month: a management team so confident in its valuation that it has authorized a $300 million share repurchase, set against analysts who are trimming near-term earnings estimates even as the company's flagship mine ramps up production.

The board-authorized buyback, launched last Wednesday and running through August 24, 2029, allows for the repurchase of up to 14.4 million shares — roughly 5 percent of outstanding equity. Management framed the decision in unusually direct terms, stating that the current share price fails to reflect the value of the company's tungsten assets and its growth prospects.

The stock, trading at €15.46, sits about 22 percent above its 200-day average of €12.72, though it remains roughly 25 percent below its April high of €20.61. The buyback announcement follows a newsletter distributed Sunday titled "Why America just banned tungsten exports," which underscored the strategic importance of the metal to the United States — a narrative Almonty is leaning into as it positions its Sangdong mine in South Korea as one of the few tungsten production sources outside China.

The Numbers Behind the Narrative

The second-quarter results that have analysts recalibrating their models tell a story of dramatic top-line acceleration. Revenue reached $42.989 million, up from $7.192 million in the year-ago quarter. Net income swung to $181.797 million from a loss of $58.209 million in Q2 2025.

But the headline profit figure requires careful unpacking. Approximately $173.1 million of that net income stems from non-cash gains related to the revaluation of derivatives and warrants — a byproduct of the $800 million convertible bond completed in June. Strip those out, and the operating picture still shows meaningful improvement: mining revenue hit $26.1 million against a $0.9 million loss a year earlier, with a gross margin of 60.7 percent in the mining segment.

The balance sheet has been transformed in a matter of months. Following the convertible note issuance, Almonty held roughly C$1.23 billion in cash as of June 30. Operating cash flow flipped from an outflow of C$14.9 million in the first half of last year to an inflow of C$31.6 million.

Analysts Diverge on What Comes Next

The analytical community is split on how to read the current juncture. Diamond Equity trimmed its fiscal 2026 earnings estimate to $0.39 per share from $0.55 on August 14, while also cutting its 2027 projection from $1.23 to $1.04 and its Q3 2026 forecast from $0.18 to $0.12.

Six days later, GBC AG came in with a "Buy" rating and a 12-month price target of $30.00, dated to December 31, 2027. The Bonn-based research house argued that the July start of ore processing at Sangdong shifts the investment thesis from construction and financing risk to measurable operational metrics — a transition the margin figures appear to support.

The tension between these two views reflects genuine uncertainty about tungsten prices and the pace of the Sangdong ramp-up curve. The mine received its first ore back in December 2025, with processing of stockpiled raw material beginning in July 2026.

A Pullback After a Run

The stock's recent price action offers some context for the buyback timing. After a 62 percent gain over 30 days, shares pulled back 3.9 percent on Friday to close at €15.57. No specific company news triggered the decline; profit-taking after August's rally appears the most plausible explanation.

Almonty has also strengthened its commercial position, having extended and expanded its off-take agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders LLC in July, increasing contracted volumes by 40 percent on improved terms.

For shareholders, the picture that emerges is one of a company transitioning from developer to producer, with the balance sheet to fund its ambitions and a management team willing to put capital behind its conviction. Whether the analysts trimming estimates or those setting $30 targets prove more accurate will depend on how quickly Sangdong's ramp-up translates into sustained profitability — and whether the tungsten market cooperates.