Almonty's Buyback Bet: A $300 Million Statement in a Market Split Over Valuation

Almonty launches $300M buyback as Q2 revenue surges 498%, but valuation concerns persist with P/E at 102.2.

Almonty Industries is preparing to spend $300 million on its own shares, a move management frames as a straightforward response to a stock price that lags the underlying value of its tungsten assets. The buyback, which begins August 24 and runs through August 2029, authorizes the purchase of up to 14.4 million shares — roughly five percent of outstanding stock as of August 14 — under SEC Rule 10b-18 safe-harbor provisions.

The timing is deliberate. Almonty's shares have been on a tear, closing August 20 at $17.59 after trading between $15.75 and $17.80 during the session, with volume of 10.48 million shares well above the 7.24 million average. That puts the stock within striking distance of its 52-week high of $24.41 — a remarkable recovery from the year's low of $3.97. The company now carries a market capitalization of roughly $5.1 billion.

The Numbers Behind the Confidence

The second-quarter results, released in early August, explain the bullishness. Revenue surged 498 percent to $43 million, fueled by record tungsten prices, while net income swung to $181.8 million from a loss of $58.2 million in the year-ago period. Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $17.6 million, reversing a $4.8 million loss. The balance sheet got a boost from an oversubscribed $800 million convertible bond offering, leaving the company with roughly CAD 1.2 billion in cash.

The operational engine is Sangdong, Almonty's mine in South Korea's Gangwon province, now in its ramp-up phase. Phase I is designed to process around 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, with an approved Phase II potentially doubling capacity to 1.2 million tonnes. The company also extended its offtake agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders to 21 years, increasing contracted volumes by 40 percent with a 6.3 percent improvement in pricing terms — a deal that locks in predictable revenue streams well into the future.

A Structural Shift in Listings

The buyback coincides with a broader reorganization of Almonty's market presence. The company voluntarily delisted from the Toronto Stock Exchange on July 31, and the Australian Securities Exchange approved a further delisting effective September 1. Meanwhile, Russell added the stock to both the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indices at the end of June, cementing its shift toward a Nasdaq-centric trading profile.

That institutional recognition has brought scrutiny along with liquidity. Insider ownership stands at 10.8 percent, with earnings growth projected at 37.1 percent — metrics analysts typically read as management confidence. But valuation questions are mounting. GuruFocus pegs fair value at just $3.37, implying the stock is overvalued by 424.9 percent, with a GF Score of 58 out of 100. The price-to-earnings ratio of 102.2 sits far above the industry median of 5.7, and the firm notes no insider transactions over the past twelve months.

Divergent Earnings Estimates

The earnings picture is equally contested. Diamond Equity recently cut its fiscal 2026 EPS forecast from $0.75 to $0.55 — still dramatically above the market consensus of just $0.02. Almonty reported second-quarter earnings of CAD 0.62 per share on revenue of CAD 43.0 million at the Toronto exchange, a gap that underscores the tension between the operational growth narrative and the accounting reality.

What isn't in dispute is the market environment. Tungsten prices for ammonium paratungstate have more than tripled since the start of the year, and the collapse of Australian competitor Tungsten Mining highlights how constrained global supply has become. With China dominating production, Almonty's position as a Western producer with an operating mine outside Chinese supply chains looks increasingly strategic.

Demand from AI applications adds another layer to the Sangdong expansion story. Whether the momentum holds will depend on how quickly the mine can scale beyond the contribution of the legacy Panasqueira operation. The buyback starts August 24 — the ramp-up at Sangdong remains the real test for the quarters ahead.