Almonty's $300 Million Buyback Lands Amid a Split Screen of Bullish Funds and Bearish Metrics

Almonty launches $300M buyback, stock jumps 6.3%; valuation split between P/E and DCF, institutional investors diverge.

The tungsten producer Almonty Industries has thrown down a sizeable marker of self-confidence. On 17 August 2026, the board authorised a buyback of up to 14.4 million common shares — roughly five per cent of the outstanding float — with a budget of as much as $300 million spread over 36 months. The programme kicks off on 24 August, and the market responded with a one-day share price jump of 6.3 per cent.

That pop extends a torrid run. Over the past week the stock has climbed 19.42 per cent, and the latest close of $16.36 caps a 249.57 per cent gain over the trailing twelve months. The buyback announcement alone drove an 8.42 per cent single-session advance, according to the most recent trading data.

A valuation puzzle with two competing answers

The share price reaction masks a deeper disagreement about what Almonty is actually worth. On earnings, the equity looks stretched: the current price-to-earnings ratio of 60.9 sits well above the fair-value multiple of 36.4 calculated by Simply Wall St, and more than triple the sector average of roughly 21. Yet a discounted cash flow model from the same research house arrives at a fair value of $40.27 per share — nearly 60 per cent above where the stock trades.

That gap between an earnings-based and a cashflow-based lens explains why the same stock can be labelled both "fully priced" and undervalued, sometimes by the same analyst community. Management's decision to repurchase shares reads, in this context, as a signal that it places more faith in the DCF arithmetic than in the earnings multiple.

Institutional money is piling in — but not everyone agrees

The buyback is not the only vote of confidence. Recent 13F filings show 136 institutional investors added to their Almonty positions last quarter. BlackRock bought just over 6 million shares worth approximately $100.6 million. Price T Rowe Associates invested around $94.7 million in nearly 5.7 million shares, while T. Rowe Price Investment Management separately committed roughly $83.6 million for more than 5 million shares.

The exits are just as telling. Cooper Creek Partners Management liquidated its entire 4.78 million-share position, and Encompass Capital Advisors followed suit with around 4.3 million shares. Goldman Sachs trimmed its holding by 80.2 per cent. The split among sophisticated investors mirrors the valuation debate: the bulls see a strategic asset ramping up production, the bears see persistent losses and cash burn.

Sangdong: the strategic card in a tightening supply chain

The operational story centres on the Sangdong mine in Yeongwol, South Korea, operated through subsidiary Almonty Korea Tungsten Corp. Processing began in July, and shortly afterwards the company expanded a long-term offtake agreement that it says secures better prices and higher contract revenue at current market levels.

The strategic timing is hard to ignore. The US has imposed procurement bans on certain Chinese raw materials for the defence sector, and China halted exports of high-purity tungsten powder to Japan between February and April 2026. Export prices for tungsten hexafluoride — a critical gas in semiconductor manufacturing — have surged: more than 950,000 renminbi per tonne between January and May, with electronic-grade material fetching 2.5 million renminbi per tonne by late June. The speciality gases market is projected to grow from $5.1 billion in 2025 to $6.9 billion by 2032, led by the Asia-Pacific region.

A balance sheet transformed, but earnings still lag

The buyback follows a dramatic strengthening of the balance sheet. On 9 June 2026, Almonty closed an oversubscribed convertible bond placement with a 2.25 per cent coupon maturing in 2031. Initial purchasers exercised their option for additional notes in full, generating gross proceeds of $800 million. Cash stood at $1.2 billion as of 30 June 2026, up from $268.4 million at the end of December 2025.

The earnings picture is less flattering. Diamond Equity cut its third-quarter 2026 estimate on 14 August from $0.24 to $0.16 per share. Consensus for full-year 2026 sits at just $0.02, before an expected jump to $1.45 in 2027, driven by forecast quarterly improvements of $0.20 to $0.50. The first quarter produced a loss of C$0.02 per share on revenue of C$25.40 million.

Analysts lean positive, with caveats

Three analysts have published price targets in the past six months, with a median of $25. The most recent call is a "Buy" with a $33 target. TipRanks' AI analyst Spark, however, rates the stock neutral, citing persistent high losses and ongoing capital consumption despite better revenue trends and an improved debt position. Technical indicators remain weak, with the stock in a downtrend carrying negative momentum.

The buyback starts on 24 August, just as Sangdong's contribution to the financials is still largely theoretical. Whether the combination of fund inflows and share repurchases closes the valuation gap Almonty has identified depends on how quickly the mine's strategic importance translates into actual revenue. For now, the bulls and the bears both have numbers on their side.