Almonty's $300 Million Buyback Caps a Week of Tungsten-Fueled Momentum

Almonty launches $300M buyback, shares jump 9% on strong Q2 results and Sangdong mine progress, with analysts raising price targets.

The tungsten producer's share price has been on a tear, and management is betting the rally has further to run. Almonty Industries announced Monday a buyback program of up to $300 million, covering roughly 14.4 million shares — about 5 percent of its outstanding equity — with the repurchase window stretching 36 months from August 24, 2026, to August 24, 2029.

CEO Lewis Black framed the decision in terms of valuation, arguing the stock trades at a "disconnect" from the value of the company's tungsten assets. The market appeared to agree: shares climbed 9 percent to $16.47 in US trading, after gaining as much as 5.4 percent pre-market, while the Australian listing advanced 10.02 percent.

A Producer in Transition

The buyback lands at a pivotal moment. Almonty's Sangdong mine in South Korea began processing operations in July 2026, and Black pointed directly to that operational progress as evidence the stock is undervalued. The timing links the capital return directly to the ramp-up of the company's core business.

The second-quarter numbers back up the narrative. Revenue hit $43.0 million — nearly five times the year-ago figure — while net income swung to $181.8 million from a loss of $58.2 million in the same quarter of 2025. EBITDA came in at $17.6 million. The first quarter had already set a tone of outperformance: revenue of $25.40 million beat the $22.99 million consensus, though operating earnings per share of minus $0.02 slipped just under the $0.01 analyst estimate.

Analysts Push Targets Higher

The buyback announcement follows a period of intensifying analyst enthusiasm. D.A. Davidson reaffirmed its Buy rating with a $33 price target, having raised it from $25 just weeks earlier. The upgrade came after a virtual roadshow with Black, with analyst Matt Summerville citing Sangdong progress, a potential US government partnership, a solid balance sheet, and record tungsten prices. A separate Strong Buy rating carries a $25.30 target.

The stock's momentum has been striking: up 159 percent over twelve months and 67 percent year-to-date, with a run from roughly $13 to above $15 in just a few sessions. Chart watchers now eye resistance at $15.50 to $16.00, with a six-to-twelve-month target zone of $18 to $20.

The Strategic Case for Tungsten

Demand for non-Chinese tungsten supply underpins the story. The metal is a critical input for artificial intelligence and defense applications, positioning Sangdong as a key source outside China's dominant grip on the market. That dynamic helps explain why the stock has re-rated so aggressively as the mine transitions from development to production.

A Streamlined Listing Structure

The buyback coincides with Almonty's retreat from a third exchange. Trading in Australian depositary interests ends August 28, 2026, with the official ASX delisting following on September 1. The company cited liquidity distribution as the reason: the bulk of daily volume now flows through the Nasdaq, where the stock trades under "ALM," with Frankfurt's "ALI1" listing also remaining active. Toronto and Sydney have faded in significance.

The Profitability Question

For all the positive momentum, valuation remains demanding. Almonty is shifting from story stock to operating producer, but the balance sheet still shows negative profitability. The next phase hinges on hard operational metrics: ramp-up rates, unit costs, and the speed at which still-significantly-negative margins improve. Any production or cost disappointment could hit the stock hard at current multiples.

For now, the mood is decidedly bullish. A de-risked production milestone, an upgraded price target, and a simplified exchange structure have kept investor interest elevated. Profitability, though, remains the metric that will define whether this rally has legs — and the buyback suggests management is confident the market will see it that way.