Almonty's $300 Million Buyback Bets on a Tungsten Supply Squeeze That's Just Getting Started

Almonty shares jump 11% on record tungsten prices, $300M buyback, and strong Q2 results as Western supply chain shifts.

The tungsten market is tightening, and Almonty Industries is positioning itself to cash in — both operationally and on Wall Street.

Shares of the Vancouver-based miner closed Thursday at $17.59, up 11 percent from the session low, after trading in a range of $15.75 to $17.80. The move came on volume of 10.48 million shares, well above the 7.24 million average, and leaves the stock with a market capitalization of roughly $5.1 billion.

That puts Almonty within striking distance of its 52-week high of $24.41, a remarkable recovery from the year's low of $3.97. The stock's wild swings reflect just how sensitive the market has become to headlines around the strategic metal.

A Buyback Timed to a Supply Shock

The company's board has authorized a share repurchase program of up to $300 million, set to begin August 24 and run for 36 months. Almonty can acquire as many as 14.4 million shares — about 5 percent of outstanding stock as of August 14 — through open-market purchases on the Nasdaq and alternative trading venues, operating under the SEC's Rule 10b-18 safe harbor.

Management's rationale: the market isn't pricing in the true value of the company's tungsten assets.

The timing is no accident. China tightened export controls on tungsten in February 2025, citing national security concerns, and has yet to ease them. The result has been a tangible squeeze in the physical market, with tungsten prices climbing past $3,125 per tonne on Wednesday morning.

Almonty has emerged as a key Western counterweight to that dependency. Its Sangdong mine in South Korea's Gangwon province and the Panasqueira operation in Portugal are both in ramp-up, positioning the company as a potentially critical supplier as Western governments and defense contractors rebuild supply chains around non-Chinese sources.

CEO Lewis Black has been explicit about the company's strategic role, noting that Almonty controls one of the largest and highest-grade tungsten deposits outside China — precisely at the moment when Western governments are rethinking their critical minerals sourcing.

The Numbers Behind the Momentum

The rally builds on a blockbuster second-quarter report released in early August. Revenue surged 498 percent year over year to $43 million, fueled by record tungsten prices. Net income swung to $181.8 million from a loss of $58.2 million in the year-ago quarter — though a substantial portion of that profit stems from a non-cash gain on convertible notes rather than operating earnings.

Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $17.6 million, versus negative $4.8 million a year earlier. The balance sheet also got a boost from an oversubscribed $800 million convertible note offering, lifting the cash position to C$1.2 billion.

The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 58, reflecting both the earnings swing and the market's expectations for continued growth.

A Structural Shift in the Shareholder Base

Beyond the operational story, Almonty's liquidity profile is undergoing a quiet transformation. In late June, index provider Russell added the stock to both the Russell 1000 and the broader Russell 3000. The company has also been consolidating its listings: it voluntarily delisted from the Toronto Stock Exchange on July 31, and the Australian Securities Exchange approved a further delisting effective September 1, 2026, leaving the Nasdaq as the primary venue.

Sangdong is the operational linchpin. Phase I is designed to produce around 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, with an already-approved Phase II potentially doubling capacity to 1.2 million tonnes. Demand for tungsten in AI infrastructure is adding another layer of support to the expansion thesis.

Still, a notable divergence has emerged: since late April, the share price has partially decoupled from tungsten prices, with the stock charting its own course. Analysts see the China decoupling trend accelerating if the Trump administration continues pushing reindustrialization and critical supply chain security — but the near-term question is whether Sangdong's production ramp can keep pace with the expectations already baked into the valuation.

The buyback launches August 24. The real test for Almonty, though, will be whether the mine's output can match the market's enthusiasm.