Almonty's 21-Year GTP Deal and $300 Million Buyback Anchor a Bullish Tungsten Story

Goldman Sachs starts Almonty at neutral with a $13 target, while Stifel rates it buy at $25 after new offtake deals and Sangdong's production start.

Almonty Industries has become a magnet for Wall Street's attention — and for good reason. The tungsten specialist has spent recent months locking down long-term offtake agreements, clearing regulatory hurdles on two continents, and authorizing a capital return program that signals confidence in its own cash generation. The market has taken notice: shares closed Friday at EUR 12.09, up 11% on the day, extending their year-to-date advance to 52%.

Two Banks, Two Very Different Views

The coverage initiated in recent days tells a story of divided opinion. Goldman Sachs began monitoring the stock on Thursday with a neutral rating and a $13.00 price target. Stifel followed with a decidedly more bullish stance, launching coverage with a buy recommendation and a $25.00 target — a level that implies substantial faith in the miner's earnings trajectory. The stock still trades 41% below its 52-week high, leaving room that bulls believe is unjustified.

Stifel's conviction rests on supply dynamics rather than company-specific factors alone. Analyst Brock Cannon points out that China accounted for roughly 80% of global mine production in 2025 and controlled about 85% of downstream ammonium paratungstate refining capacity. Once Beijing imposed export controls, tungsten prices surged approximately 775% from the start of 2025. Industrial and defense buyers outside China have since been scrambling for dependable alternative supply — a gap Almonty is positioning itself to fill.

Contractual Backbone: From Spain to a 21-Year Commitment

The company's commercial foundations have deepened considerably. On September 17, Almonty signed a long-term tungsten concentrate supply agreement with Wolfram Bergbau und Hütten AG, a subsidiary of the Sandvik Group, covering the reprocessing of existing tailings at the Los Santos mine in western Spain.

That deal builds on an earlier milestone: on July 14, Almonty amended its long-term supply contract with Global Tungsten & Powders LLC, stretching the term from 15 to 21 years. The contracted volume rose 40% to 4.41 million MTU, accompanied by improved pricing terms.

Sangdong Ramps Up as Portugal Expands

Operationally, the pieces are falling into place. Roughly a week ago, Almonty completed the regulatory requirements for commercial processing at its Sangdong mine in South Korea, enabling the site to produce tungsten concentrate for both domestic and export markets. Phase I commercial production is now underway there. Since that production start, the share price has slipped 1.7%.

A planned Phase II expansion aims to nearly double annual ore throughput to 1.2 million tonnes by 2027. According to Cannon, a fully developed Sangdong could cover around 40% of Western and allied tungsten supply. In parallel, Almonty is pushing capacity growth at Panasqueira in Portugal, with management targeting the position of leading Western tungsten producer by the end of 2028. A proposed tungsten oxide facility represents additional upside.

Buyback and the Road Ahead

Underpinning the equity story is a board-approved share repurchase program for 2026. The authorization permits Almonty to buy back up to 14,400,000 common shares over 36 months, beginning August 24, 2026 and running through August 24, 2029, for a total purchase price of up to $300 million.

With a market capitalization of roughly EUR 2.74 billion, the company has clearly outgrown its earlier obscurity. Jefferies already covers the name, and the addition of Goldman Sachs and Stifel broadens its institutional footprint. Still, more cautious voices on the sell side flag execution risk across the company's simultaneous expansion projects — a reminder that the bullish case depends on delivering on multiple fronts at once.