Almonty Rides a Fractured Tungsten Market as Washington Tightens the Screws on Supply

Chinese APT prices plunge 24.6% while Western benchmarks hold firm; Almonty begins output at Sangdong as US restricts tungsten scrap exports.

The tungsten market is telling two very different stories right now, and Almonty Industries is positioned squarely at the intersection of both. While Chinese domestic prices for ammonium paratungstate have collapsed by nearly a quarter in a matter of weeks, Western benchmark pricing has held remarkably firm — a split that is reshaping how investors value the few producers operating outside China's orbit.

A Tale of Two Markets

The APT price CIF Rotterdam for material with an 88.5 percent tungsten trioxide content stood at roughly $3,075 per MTU at the end of July, essentially flat month-on-month. Across the Pacific, the picture could hardly be more different: China's domestic benchmark had tumbled to the equivalent of just under $79,732 per tonne by early August, down from approximately $105,775 a month earlier — a 24.6 percent decline. Cautious buying behaviour and swelling inventories are weighing on the Chinese market, even as Western purchasers appear willing to absorb higher prices.

That divergence is playing out against a structural supply deficit that S&P Global flagged in its August analysis: mine capacity outside China is expected to cover only around 37 percent of global demand in 2025. Demand is projected to grow ten percent by 2030, yet even if all eleven announced mine projects come online, the supply gap would only narrow to 16,000 tonnes — and that estimate assumes projects that remain highly uncertain actually materialise.

Washington Steps In

Adding a geopolitical layer to the supply calculus, the US government has imposed a one-year export restriction on tungsten scrap, effective 27 August. From that date, all monthly sales of scrap tungsten must go entirely to domestic buyers to shore up American defence supply chains. The move underscores how tungsten has become a strategic commodity in the escalating competition with China over critical minerals.

The timing is notable. Chinese long-term procurement offers for wolframite and scheelite concentrates in Guangdong were raised by 1,000 yuan per tonne, while APT offers were cut by 6,000 yuan per tonne — a contradictory signal that points to uncertainty in pricing across the processing chain, precisely as Washington seeks to reduce its reliance on Chinese supply.

Sangdong Shifts From Blueprint to Production

Almonty CEO Lewis Black, in comments dated 16 August, pointed to structural supply constraints amplified by strategic stockpiling and semiconductor industry demand — an environment that widens the gap between announced mine projects and actual output.

The company's Sangdong mine in South Korea has now made the transition from construction to operations. Since July, the facility has been processing stockpiled ore, marking the first time Almonty can point to real production rather than project milestones. Phase one is designed for a throughput capacity of 640,000 tonnes of ore per year, yielding roughly 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate, with a second phase targeting 1.2 million tonnes already on the drawing board.

That operational progress is underpinned by the expanded supply agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders, extended in July. The contract now runs 21 years — six years longer than before — with offtake volumes increased by 40 percent and prices improved by approximately 6.3 percent. Almonty values the annual revenue potential from this single agreement at up to $490 million.

A Stock in Overdrive

The market has taken notice. Shares traded at €16.20 on Tuesday, up 104 percent since the start of the year and 340 percent higher on a twelve-month basis. The stock sits 21 percent below its 52-week high of €20.61, reached in April, suggesting investors see further upside if the Sangdong story and favourable Western pricing persist.

The equity's momentum is even more striking measured from its lows: the share price now stands 383 percent above the 52-week trough of €3.33. A $300 million buyback programme announced last month continues to provide underlying support, with the stock up 3.0 percent since its launch. The shares are trading 21 percent above their 50-day moving average.

That said, this is not a ride for the faint-hearted. Annualised 30-day volatility sits at 92 percent, and with a market capitalisation of €2.72 billion attached to a producer still in its early production phase, the risk profile remains substantial.

Streamlining the Listing Structure

Behind the scenes, Almonty is also reshaping its corporate footprint. The company will delist from the Australian Securities Exchange on 1 September, with the final trading day for its CHESS Depositary Interests set for 28 August. Management frames the move as a way to concentrate liquidity on the Nasdaq and Frankfurt listings — a recognition that trading activity has shifted decisively toward North American and European investors.

The June addition of the stock to both the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indices has already broadened access for institutional investors with index-tracking mandates, and the ASX exit reinforces that strategic direction.

The convergence of US export restrictions, first production at Sangdong, and a streamlined listing structure paints a picture of a company in transition — from development story to producer with growing geopolitical relevance. Whether that structural tailwind translates into more stable pricing will depend on where Chinese APT quotations head next, and those have been under visible pressure of late.