Almonty: Oppenheimer Cuts Its Yardstick as Tungsten Prices Cool

Oppenheimer analyst Ian Zaffino trimmed his price target on Almonty from US$25 to US$19 on Thursday, keeping an "Outperform" rating on the stock. The cut rests on lower valuation multiples among comparable companies — not on the slide in tungsten prices that industry media reported the same day. Keeping those two drivers apart matters, because they operate on different levels: one sets the yardstick investors apply, the other shapes the economics of the business itself.

The distinction is easy to blur. A positive view of the company does not shield it from a lower valuation, and operational progress can coexist with a falling price target without any contradiction. What the downgrade of the target — rather than of the rating — really signals is that the analysts have not abandoned their constructive stance; they are simply applying a more modest benchmark.

A Price Signal From the Tungsten Market

Industry reports on Thursday pointed to softening prices and seasonally weak demand from downstream buyers. The reference price for tungstenite concentrate at 65% grade stood at 302,000 yuan per standard tonne, down 75,000 yuan per standard tonne within the month. Oppenheimer's note also cited tungsten/APT prices that have retreated to US$2,700/MTU.

For shareholders, that price trend is a warning sign rather than a direct statement about Almonty's sales proceeds. A production milestone and its financial effect have to be judged separately. The industry price provides an important frame, but it does not substitute for a company-specific assessment.

Sangdong Is Back, but a Milestone Is Not a Valuation Case

On 10 October, industry media reported that Almonty had produced tungsten at its Sangdong mine in South Korea for the first time since 1993, with the milestone reached at the end of September. In his newsletter of 11 October, CEO Lewis Black highlighted Sangdong's first commercial tungsten shipment in more than 30 years, alongside progress in Rwanda and advancing plans for a second expansion phase.

Those are relevant operational signals. A shipment marks a milestone, yet on its own it answers neither the pricing question nor the question of financial headroom for further projects. The bull case builds on this completed step: if Almonty can show further credible progress while the price environment stabilises, the operational story could gain weight against sector worries, and investors would focus less narrowly on falling commodity prices. Even then, the restart of production would be a starting point for further progress — not the full economic proof of it.

The opposite risk is persistent weak demand and thin trading activity. Should the price decline continue, it could cap the positive perception of operational gains, and investors would likely demand more evidence of economic value from those gains.

What the Share Price Does and Doesn't Say

The stock fell 2.7% on Friday, underlining the weak recent performance. That move alone does not prove the price target cut caused the decline, nor does it establish a clear link between the price report and the share movement. Both burdens deserve attention — market prices, operations and financing — rather than an isolated success headline.

The Investor Day as the Next Test

The announced investor day on 19 October 2026 is the next concrete date. Almonty plans a live webcast covering the tungsten market, price developments and operations at individual mines, along with information on balance-sheet financing headroom. Its value for investors lies in connecting these threads: whether the explanations on offer make a clearer link between production progress and economic prospects.

The operational story offers grounds for optimism, but it does not justify an uncritical valuation. Almonty's development becomes convincing when operating progress and economic expectations line up — and that, rather than milestones alone or the next price swing, is the standard by which the stock should be judged.