Almonty Clears Final Regulatory Hurdle at Sangdong as Analysts Split on What Comes Next

Almonty cleared to run Sangdong crushing and processing at commercial scale after first tungsten output since 1993; Goldman rates Neutral, Stifel Buy.

Almonty Industries has crossed the line that separates mine developers from mine operators. With the last batch of regulatory inspection certificates granted on 21 September, the company's Sangdong tungsten project in South Korea now holds formal clearance to run its crushing and processing circuits at commercial scale and to sell the concentrate they produce. The stock traded at EUR 11.85 on the day, down 1.6 percent.

The approvals cover both the crushing and the processing plants, which together form the backbone of the operation. What follows is the part of a mining project's life cycle that cannot be certified on paper: proving that the equipment holds up under continuous load and that throughput targets are met without unexpected friction. For anyone tracking the stock, the question has shifted from whether permits would arrive to whether the ramp-up delivers.

First Concentrate Since 1993

The regulatory green light follows a more tangible milestone. Last Wednesday the company reported its first tungsten output at Sangdong since 1993, ending a dormancy at the historic site that stretched across three decades. Almonty's transformation from developer to active producer is now a matter of record rather than projection.

Near-term revenue risk is largely spoken for. More than 90 percent of Phase I production is committed under a long-term offtake agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders, according to the company. That contract gives the operation a commercial floor while management works to lift plant throughput steadily and, once operations stabilise, to add customers in South Korea and further afield.

Two Houses, Two Very Different Numbers

The changed operating reality drew fresh coverage from Wall Street last week, and the two initial ratings could hardly sit further apart. On Thursday, Goldman Sachs began monitoring Almonty with a Neutral rating and a USD 13.00 price target. The bank's caution rests on the view that favourable tungsten market conditions and Sangdong's demanding production profile are already largely priced in, and it expects both a normalisation of commodity prices and a gradual production ramp.

Stifel went the other way on Friday, opening coverage with a Buy and a USD 25.00 target. Its analysts pointed to the commercial start of Phase I at Sangdong alongside planned growth at the site and at the Panasqueira mine in Portugal. On that basis, Stifel sees Almonty climbing to become the leading Western tungsten producer by the end of 2028.

The gap between the two targets — nearly double — captures a genuine disagreement about how to weigh execution risk against market opportunity. The cautious camp stresses the danger of ramp-up delays; the optimistic camp highlights the pull from Western buyers seeking supply outside dominant producing nations. Almonty occupies a rare position in that landscape, but it still has to demonstrate its projected output volumes in day-to-day industrial operation.

Offtake Deals Beyond Korea

The Korean flagship is flanked by arrangements in other markets. Roughly two weeks ago, Almonty announced a multi-year take-or-pay supply contract with Wolfram Bergbau und Hütten AG, a Sandvik subsidiary, covering the processing of tailings from the Los Santos mine. The deal guarantees offtake of at least around 1,720 tonnes of contained tungsten trioxide and includes a contingent one-time payment of USD 3.0 million for the corresponding offtake rights.

Since that announcement, the shares have shed 1.6 percent. Even so, the stock is up 49 percent since the start of the year. Agreements of this kind lock in fixed revenue streams away from the South Korean main site, shoring up the financial base during the Sangdong ramp-up.

There is also fresh resource potential on the African continent. Almonty holds three quarters of the joint venture Almonty Rwanda Pty Ltd, with the remaining quarter belonging to the Rwandan government. The state is contributing the Shyorongi exploration concession and a mineral processing licence to the venture.

What the Next Few Months Must Prove

The paperwork is in place and the first concentrate has been produced. Whether the momentum holds now depends on how smoothly Sangdong settles into sustained industrial operation and whether the company hits its stated output targets in practice. The wide spread between the two analyst targets makes one thing clear: investors are unlikely to fully embrace the producer story until the supply chain proves it can run reliably.