Almonty Catches Two Analyst Nods in One Week, Yet the Tape Tells a Different Story

Jefferies and GBC AG initiate coverage with buy ratings, but Almonty's shares hover near support after failing to break $19 resistance multiple times.

The tungsten producer Almonty Industries has suddenly become a favourite of the sell-side, with two separate research houses initiating coverage within days of each other. But the share price is refusing to cooperate, hovering near technical support levels that have already repelled buyers several times this year.

Jefferies became the latest house to throw its weight behind the stock, issuing a buy recommendation that highlights the strategic value of Almonty's tungsten assets as Western buyers scramble to reduce dependence on Chinese supply. The endorsement arrived just days after GBC AG launched coverage with a far more aggressive target: 30.00 US dollars per share by the end of 2027, a level that implies roughly double the current price.

The disconnect between analyst enthusiasm and market behaviour is striking. The shares changed hands at 15.05 euro on the day of the Jefferies call, down 1.3 percent on the session and about 27 percent below the 52-week high of 20.61 euro struck in mid-April. The stock has now failed on multiple occasions to break through resistance at 19 US dollars, with the most recent rejection triggering a correction of more than twelve percent. The pullback over the past week alone amounts to 7.1 percent.

Sangdong shifts from construction to cash generation

The fundamental case rests primarily on the Sangdong mine in South Korea, which began production in July after first ore deliveries were completed in December. GBC's projections describe a step-change in the company's financial profile: revenue is expected to reach 365.9 million US dollars this year, then climb to 1.32 billion US dollars in 2027 and 1.49 billion US dollars in 2028. Adjusted EBITDA is forecast to expand from 329.7 million to as much as 1.30 billion US dollars over that window, with free cash flow growing from 95.8 million to 958.7 million US dollars.

Those figures represent a radical departure from Almonty's historical scale and underscore the extent to which the investment thesis now hinges on Sangdong's ramp-up delivering as planned. The company's balance sheet has been fortified to support that ambition. An oversubscribed offering of convertible notes completed in early June raised 800 million US dollars at a 2.25 percent coupon with a 2031 maturity. Cash holdings consequently jumped from 268.4 million Canadian dollars at the end of 2025 to 1.2 billion Canadian dollars by mid-2026.

That liquidity cushion is earmarked for the continued expansion of Sangdong and a share buyback programme of up to 300 million US dollars approved in August. The operational outlook was further bolstered in July when Almonty extended its offtake agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders, adding six years to the contract term, increasing committed volumes by 40 percent and improving pricing terms by roughly 6.3 percent. The deal locks in long-term demand for a substantial portion of the company's tungsten output during the critical commissioning phase.

Short-term signals flash caution

Despite the bullish analyst chorus, technical indicators are sending a more cautious message. Daily charts show both RSI and MACD in bearish territory, suggesting the recent slide may not have run its course. The stock has gained roughly 90 percent since the start of the year, and profit-taking after such a run is hardly unusual — but the repeated failure at the 19 US dollar level does suggest overhead supply that will need to be absorbed.

The market capitalisation currently stands at 2.73 billion euro, a valuation that already embeds considerable optimism about Sangdong's trajectory. GBC's own projections anticipate the mine becoming the central earnings driver, and the analysts at Jefferies similarly frame Almonty as one of the few meaningful tungsten suppliers operating outside China — a positioning that carries growing geopolitical weight as Western supply chains for critical minerals come under renewed scrutiny.

For investors, the tension is between a long-term story that appears intact and near-term momentum that has clearly deteriorated. The coming weeks will indicate whether the 19 US dollar resistance level becomes a launching pad or a ceiling, and whether the production data emerging from Sangdong can validate the analysts' ambitious forecasts before the market's patience wears thin.