Almonty Balances Buyback Plans and Mine Expansion Against Cautious Analyst Outlook

Almonty Industries plans shareholder returns once its South Korean tungsten operations are running, as analysts split on the Sangdong ramp-up.

Almonty Industries is preparing to return capital to shareholders once its South Korean tungsten operations are up and running, even as Wall Street remains divided over how quickly the company can deliver on its production ambitions.

In a letter to shareholders, management outlined a buyback program that would operate under preset parameters, allowing repurchases to continue even during regular blackout windows. Chief executive Lewis Black told investors that Phase I of the Sangdong facility is already producing, framing the planned capital return as a way to give existing shareholders a direct stake in future cash flows and to signal confidence in the company's own valuation.

Phase II Takes Shape as Rwanda Deal Adds a Second Front

Work on the second stage at Sangdong is already underway underground, with equipment orders placed with supplier Metso. Permits for Phase II are in hand, and completion is targeted for 2027. Once finished, processing capacity is expected to reach up to 1.2 million tonnes of ore annually.

Beyond South Korea, Almonty has been widening its geographic footprint. A mid-September agreement with the Rwandan government created the Almonty Rwanda joint venture, in which the company holds 75 percent. In exchange for a 25 percent stake, the state side contributes the Shyorongi exploration concession along with a mineral processing licence.

Europe offers another revenue stream. On 17 September, management signed a multi-year offtake contract with Wolfram Bergbau und Hütten AG, a Sandvik subsidiary, covering reprocessing of tailings from the Los Santos mine in Spain. The take-or-pay arrangement covers at least roughly 1,720 tonnes of contained tungsten trioxide and includes a conditional one-time payment of USD 3.0 million for the offtake rights.

Auditor Swap and Analyst Divergence

On the corporate side, Almonty changed auditors on Tuesday. After filing the relevant report with the US securities regulator, Zeifmans LLP stepped down from the engagement at the company's request, with PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP appointed as successor. According to the company, there were no disagreements or reportable events leading up to the change.

Sentiment in the market has been mixed as Almonty shifts from mine construction to active operation. Analysts have flagged the risks tied to unusually high tungsten price assumptions and a demanding ramp-up profile at Sangdong.

Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on 24 September with a neutral rating and a $13.00 price target. The bank expects tungsten prices to normalise and assumes a more gradual production ramp-up at Sangdong than the broader market currently anticipates. That view serves as a counterweight to more bullish calls — Stifel has set its price target at $25.00.

Sangdong Output Largely Contracted

Sangdong remains the centrepiece of the story. According to SEC filings, more than 90 percent of Phase I production is already locked up under supply agreements.

The operational milestones have fed through to longer-term performance. The stock is up 47 percent since the start of the year, though it remains well below its 52-week high of EUR 20.61, with scepticism about future price stability in the tungsten market persisting.

In German trading, the shares closed at EUR 11.73 on Thursday and were last quoted at EUR 11.70.