Allianz Wins Back Berenberg's Favor as Traders Look Past a Soft Third Quarter

Berenberg has restored Allianz to its list of preferred equities, reaffirming a buy rating and pointing to the insurer's 2026 earnings outlook and momentum in its non-life business. The stock responded in kind, climbing 1.7% on the day. A separate reading put the advance at 1.8%, with both figures reflecting the same session's strength.

The endorsement lands less than three weeks before Allianz opens its books on the third quarter, scheduled for November 12, 2026. Metzler Capital Markets expects the group to use that release to sharpen its guidance, potentially narrowing the operating profit target for 2026 to the upper half of its range. That remains an analyst projection rather than company guidance.

The Number That Matters

Allianz has put a full-year 2026 operating profit target of EUR 17.4 billion on the table, with a EUR 1 billion buffer on either side — a ceiling of EUR 18.4 billion. The question for shareholders is how much of that band the business can credibly claim once the next set of figures is in. A re-rating becomes easier to justify if management lays out a convincing route to the top end, and that requires the reported numbers and the commentary on the remaining months to tell the same story.

The first half offers a sturdy foundation. Operating profit rose 8.6% to EUR 9.39 billion, giving investors a solid base against which to test the annual goal.

Asset Management as the Swing Factor

Within the group, the asset management arm delivered operating profit of EUR 1.79 billion in the first half, up 13%. That division now provides the clearest support for the bullish case, and its durability will be scrutinized closely. Pimco drew net inflows of EUR 69.3 billion in the first six months, and analysts look for roughly EUR 945 million in operating profit from asset management in the third quarter.

Those two data points give investors a pair of yardsticks for the upcoming report. A convincing showing there, paired with a confident read on the rest of the year, would reinforce faith in the earnings base. Earnings per share forecasts add a longer horizon: analysts peg 2026 at EUR 30.39 and 2027 at EUR 33.22, a trajectory that gains credibility only if coming results underpin the expected growth path.

A Weaker Quarter Raises the Stakes

The counterweight sits in third-quarter expectations. Analysts anticipate operating profit of about EUR 4.31 billion, down from EUR 4.43 billion a year earlier. Such a decline would magnify the importance of the final three months — and the risk is that a strong first half keeps expectations elevated while recent momentum cools.

Reaching the upper end of the annual target would require roughly EUR 4.7 billion in the fourth quarter, a figure that shows exactly what an optimistic scenario must deliver. On top of that, analysts expect year-on-year declines in adjusted earnings per share and net profit. Should those soft spots coincide with a more cautious outlook, the case for a rapid continuation of positive earnings momentum would weaken.

Deals Beyond the Numbers

Operationally, Allianz has been busy extending its reach. Allianz Partners on October 28 added four years to its strategic partnership with the TUI Group, a collaboration currently spanning eleven European markets. The plan includes AI-supported travel insurance and the addition of further markets and distribution channels.

A day earlier, Allianz Versicherungs-AG confirmed it will become the new insurance partner of Mercedes-Benz Bank, embedding car insurance directly into vehicle purchases at Mercedes-Benz dealerships so that customers can arrange cover as part of buying the car.

What the Report Must Prove

So long as operating profit supports the annual outlook and asset management confirms its earnings strength, a favorable scenario remains defensible. If the quarterly contribution comes in weaker and confidence in the closing quarter slips at the same time, the expectation of a particularly strong year-end would need to be scaled back.

November 12 is the next concrete catalyst. The key is to read the operating result and the guidance on the remaining year together — and to judge whether the two form a coherent earnings path capable of carrying the expectations that have already been built into the share price.