Aixtron's Two-Speed Recovery: Record Orders Are Outpacing the Income Statement

Aixtron's order backlog hits €457M on AI laser demand, while Süss MicroTec gains on CoWoS packaging. Both trade at high P/E, with JPMorgan bullish on Aixtron.

The gap between what Aixtron is booking and what it is billing has rarely been wider — and that divergence is now the central story for investors weighing the German deposition-equipment specialist against its TecDAX peer Süss MicroTec.

After a bruising first half, the Herzogenrath-based company has staged an operational about-face that its order book is documenting far more vividly than its profit-and-loss statement. Second-quarter net income came in at €19.1 million, pulling the group back into the black following a €2.8 million net loss for the January-to-June period. Revenue for the first six months slid 30% year-on-year to €174.5 million, down from €249.9 million — the hangover from a soft order intake in earlier quarters.

The real momentum, however, is building further out on the horizon. Order intake surged 81% in the second quarter to €215 million, lifting the total backlog to €457 million as of June 30. That influx of business — much of it tied to laser systems for AI data-center networking — has emboldened management to reaffirm its upgraded full-year guidance: sales of roughly €560 million, with a tolerance band of plus or minus €30 million, and an EBIT margin between 17% and 20%. For the third quarter alone, the company is guiding to revenue of €160 million to €200 million.

A Tale of Two Semiconductor Supply-Chain Bets

The contrast with Süss MicroTec, which has reinvented itself as a pure-play backend specialist, illustrates two very different wagers on the AI buildout. Aixtron dominates MOCVD equipment for compound semiconductors — gallium nitride and silicon carbide — while also supplying optical G10-AsP systems to customers like Lumentum for AI networking. Süss MicroTec, having divested its MicroOptics unit last year, now concentrates entirely on wafer bonding and coating, technologies essential to the CoWoS packaging process that underpins high-bandwidth memory production.

The market has rewarded both, but with different rhythms. Over the past week, Süss MicroTec has climbed 11.41% to roughly €83.90, crossing above its 38-day moving average, while Aixtron added 7.99%. The monthly picture flips: Süss MicroTec is up 0.96%, whereas Aixtron has slipped 6.16% as it digests July's correction. Year-to-date, Aixtron's gain of 134.43% edges out Süss MicroTec's 100.95%, and over twelve months the spread widens — 208.17% against 170.97%.

Valuation and Analyst Backing

Both stocks trade at demanding multiples — a P/E of roughly 47 for Aixtron and 45 for Süss MicroTec — signaling that the market is already pricing in substantial margin expansion at each company. JPMorgan reiterated its "Overweight" rating on Aixtron on Thursday with a €60 price target, implying more than 40% upside from current levels. The bank's confidence rests on demand for high-speed optical solutions in AI networks. Notably, JPMorgan Chase & Co. has also crossed the 3% voting-rights threshold in Aixtron, according to a recent regulatory filing.

Süss MicroTec enjoys similarly bullish coverage: Berenberg carries a €125 price target, and Warburg Research rates the stock a Buy. Their argument is that deferred orders reflect capacity constraints at customers — not softening demand. The company's backlog of €473.7 million extends well into 2027, and its gross margin improved to 38.0% in the second quarter, evidence of growing pricing power with major OSAT clients.

Chart Levels and the Path Ahead

Technically, Aixtron is working through a classic turnaround setup. After bottoming near €38.30, the shares cleared €41 on August 11, an initial attempt to break the short-term downtrend. A sustained move above the interim high at €45 would open the door toward €50, provided the €40 support level holds. The stock traded around €41.71 on Thursday, comfortably above that floor but still below its 50-day average of €46.49. It dipped 3.5% to €41.94 on Wednesday, a reminder that the recovery remains uneven.

Süss MicroTec, by contrast, is already in an established uptrend, trading roughly 34% above its 200-day line — a sign the stock may be short-term extended. The next major resistance sits at the ten-year high of €110.90 set in June. As long as the shares hold above the 38-day line at €82.52, the technical bias stays bullish; a pullback toward €75 would look like a healthy pause rather than a trend reversal.

Two Stations on the Same Supply Chain

For investors choosing between the two, the decision is essentially about which stage of the semiconductor production process to back. Aixtron offers exposure to front-end deposition, with a recovery play in power electronics and a strong position in laser systems for AI communication — but carries cyclical risk tied to chipmakers' capital expenditure plans and competition from heavyweights like Applied Materials. Süss MicroTec is the more direct bet on AI hardware's backend, with exceptional visibility from its order book and rising margins, though its valuation and concentration among a handful of customers in Taiwan and Korea are genuine concerns.

Aixtron currently looks like the valuation opportunity following a correction; Süss MicroTec resembles a momentum story in continuation. Both companies underscore how deeply German engineering is embedded in the global semiconductor chain — just at very different points along the production line.