Airbus Shares Drift Lower Even as Delivery Counters and the A350F Build Momentum

Airbus shares fall 8.8% in a month even as H1 profit surges 70% and A350F nears first flight, testing market sentiment.

The gap between Airbus's operational trajectory and its share price is becoming harder to ignore. While the planemaker's production lines are humming and its freighter programme approaches a pivotal milestone, the stock has been sliding — a divergence that leaves investors weighing whether the market is being too cautious or simply pricing in risks that have yet to surface in the numbers.

At the heart of the near-term narrative is the A350F, the cargo variant of the long-haul A350 that is designed to take on Boeing's 777 freighter. The aircraft was unveiled on 19 August in the livery of a parcel delivery group, with the first flight expected around 24 September. The programme has already attracted 107 firm orders from 14 customers — a solid endorsement from the air freight sector ahead of what will be a crucial test of the aircraft's certification timeline and eventual entry into service.

A Delivery Machine That Keeps Producing

The commercial side of the business has shown little sign of strain. In the first half of the year, revenue climbed 12 percent to €33.176 billion, while operating profit surged 70 percent to €2.745 billion. Net income rose 47 percent to €2.243 billion, translating into earnings per share of €2.84. The company handed over 351 commercial aircraft in the period, up from 306 a year earlier.

That momentum carried into the second half. July saw 67 deliveries, bringing the year-to-date total to 418 against a full-year target of roughly 870 aircraft. Order intake was particularly robust that month, with 204 gross orders secured — buoyed by substantial commitments for single-aisle and widebody jets around the Farnborough air show. August was quieter but still constructive: Cathay Pacific agreed to buy 30 A330-900neo widebodies, airBaltic ordered ten more A220-300s, and a further 46 gross orders were logged. Airbus also delivered 47 aircraft in August, maintaining its production cadence.

Management reaffirmed its full-year guidance on 29 July, sticking with around 870 deliveries, adjusted operating profit of €7.5 billion, and free cash flow before customer financing of €4.5 billion. The longer-term target remains an adjusted operating profit of €12 billion to €13 billion by 2029, based on an assumed exchange rate of $1.22 per euro.

Infrastructure Keeps Pace With Ambition

The growth strategy extends beyond the current order book. In Belfast, construction has begun on a roughly 6,200-square-metre expansion of the wing production facility, designed to support the ramp-up of the A220 programme. Completion is slated for the first half of 2028 — a signal that the company is preparing its physical footprint for higher output volumes well into the next decade.

The Stock Tells a Different Story

Despite the steady stream of operational progress, the equity market has remained unimpressed. The shares were recently trading at €195.66, having lost around 8.8 percent over the past 30 days. That puts the stock roughly 12 percent below its 52-week high of €221.25, reached in mid-January. A slightly different snapshot shows the shares at €196.96, down 11 percent from that January peak and off 4.9 percent since the company announced a €5 billion share buyback programme, spread over three years, roughly a month ago.

The buyback — approved by the board alongside the half-year results — has done little to arrest the decline. Some market participants suggest the operational strength was already reflected in the valuation, leaving investors to focus on other factors: strike activity in Spain, for instance, or the precise timing of the A350F's first flight. The industrial disputes in Spain have added a layer of uncertainty to the delivery outlook, even if the published figures so far show no fundamental disruption.

A September Test Point

The coming weeks could provide some clarity. If the A350F takes to the air as planned in late September, it would validate the programme's schedule and hand the company a concrete operational achievement around which sentiment could pivot. For a management team that has set an ambitious profit target for the end of the decade, a smooth first flight would reinforce the message that the growth programmes remain on track — even if the share price has yet to reflect it.