Airbus's July Delivery Plateau Puts the 870-Jet Target Under the Microscope

Airbus faces a steep delivery ramp to meet 2024 targets, while strong order momentum and supply chain constraints keep the stock under watch.

The arithmetic facing Airbus as autumn approaches is unforgiving. With 418 aircraft handed over in the first seven months of the year, the planemaker must now average roughly 90 deliveries per month through December to land within its full-year guidance of 820 to 870 jets. July's flat performance — exactly 67 aircraft, matching the year-ago figure — means the production ramp has yet to show the acceleration that the calendar demands.

That delivery cadence, or lack thereof, is shaping up as the central tension for the stock. Jefferies responded to the July print by reiterating a Hold rating with a €200 price target, describing the delivery figure as marginally below expectations. The market, however, appears less concerned: the shares were changing hands around €215.75, a mere 2.5% below the 52-week high touched in January and roughly 13% above the 50-day moving average of €191.09.

Order Book Momentum Shows No Signs of Cooling

While the factory output has plateaued, the commercial side tells a different story. July brought 204 gross orders, lifting the year-to-date gross total to 1,024 aircraft. After adjustments — including the cancellation of 15 A330neo orders tied to AirAsia X's deal for 150 A220s — the net figure stands at 1,090. SMBC Aviation Capital, China Eastern Airlines, flynas and Riyadh Air were among the month's most prominent customers, and Airbus confirmed that China-related orders were included in the July intake.

The demand picture extends beyond the headline names. Vietnamese carrier Sun PhuQuoc Airways has lined up four A330 widebodies for delivery this year, with the first two expected to arrive in Vietnam as soon as next month, and four more slated for 2027 as the airline expands its international network.

Supply Chain Remains the Binding Constraint

The gap between order intake and delivery output underscores where the real bottleneck lies. Honeywell Aerospace has said that component shortages are forcing it to prioritise original-equipment shipments to Boeing and Airbus — even at the expense of its higher-margin aftermarket business. That disclosure is a useful reminder that Airbus's production challenges are not entirely self-inflicted; the wider supplier ecosystem continues to strain under the weight of the industry's recovery.

Safety Probe Adds a New Dimension

Against that operational backdrop, a separate issue has emerged that investors are watching with caution. Airbus has dispatched specialists to assist Air India in investigating an unexplained altitude loss on an A320. The aircraft dropped roughly 300 feet during an incident on 4 August, and the manufacturer's preliminary analysis indicates that the elevator and ailerons failed to respond for approximately four seconds. Airbus has asked Air India to inspect the hydraulic system, sensors, switches and wiring, though the root cause of the hydraulic pressure loss has yet to be determined. The aircraft also experienced forces exceeding specified limits during the sudden altitude change, according to the preliminary findings.

For now, the incident remains a safety matter without quantified financial consequences — a definitive conclusion from the investigation is still pending.

A Compliance Chapter Closes

On the regulatory front, Airbus has drawn a line under a long-running UK matter. The company paid just over £6.4 million to HM Revenue & Customs to settle a two-year investigation into export control violations. The sum is immaterial for a group of Airbus's scale, but it closes a compliance issue that had been lingering in the background.

The Second-Half Equation

The half-year results, published in early August, came in stronger than expected and prompted management to reaffirm its full-year guidance: around 870 commercial aircraft deliveries, adjusted EBIT of approximately €7.5 billion and free cash flow before customer financing of roughly €4.5 billion. The confidence was rooted in civil aircraft production gains and growth in the defence business.

Whether that confidence is justified will hinge on the delivery trajectory over the next five months. The market has so far chosen to weight the record order book and the long-term demand story more heavily than the near-term delivery risk. But if the monthly output does not climb toward that 90-jet pace — and soon — the disconnect between operational reality and the share price's proximity to its January peak of €221.25 will become harder to sustain.