Airbus's Freighter Deadline Looms as Order Momentum Fails to Lift the Share Price

Airbus stock slides as A350F freighter nears first flight and Biman nears 10-jet order, testing investor confidence in 2027 delivery.

The aerospace giant finds itself in an unusual spot this week: commercial wins keep piling up, yet the stock keeps sliding. That disconnect — between a bulging order book and a soft share price — is becoming the defining narrative for Airbus investors heading into autumn.

The latest test of that dynamic comes in two forms. On the commercial side, Bangladesh's state carrier Biman is closing in on a ten-aircraft deal, while on the industrial side, the first A350F freighter is set to take to the skies on or around 24 September, kicking off a twelve-month certification sprint that Airbus must complete to hold its promised 2027 delivery date.

A Freighter Program Under the Microscope

The A350F rollout, unveiled on 19 August in the livery of a parcel carrier, marks the beginning of a high-stakes period for the manufacturer. Airbus must run the full gauntlet of type certification within a year to meet its self-imposed delivery target — an ambitious timeline by industry standards, where regulatory delays are more the norm than the exception. Investors will likely treat the September first flight as an early gauge of whether the program can sustain that pace.

The stakes are strategic as much as operational. The widebody freighter segment has long been Boeing territory, and a punctual 2027 market entry would give Airbus a foothold before rivals can respond. The program already has 107 firm orders from 14 customers, providing a solid base, but the certification window leaves little margin for error.

This industrial push comes on the back of a strong first half. In late July, Airbus reported a 12 percent revenue jump to EUR 33,176 million and a 70 percent surge in operating profit, powered by a record delivery rate in the second quarter. That operational strength now forms the backdrop against which the freighter program must prove itself.

Biman's Dual-Track Strategy

Meanwhile, the order pipeline continues to expand. Biman Bangladesh Airlines is expected to sign a contract by 31 August 2026 for four A350-900 widebodies and six A321neo narrowbodies, according to Bangladesh's state minister for civil aviation and tourism, M Rashiduzzaman Millat. The government has decided to proceed with the purchase of ten Airbus aircraft, he confirmed.

Airbus reportedly revised its original offer downward during negotiations, aligning the proposal more closely with the carrier's current capacity needs. The deal complements an existing Boeing order — Biman signed a USD 3.7 billion contract for 14 Boeing jets in April — signalling a deliberate shift toward a mixed fleet after decades of single-supplier dependence. Diplomatic backing from France, Britain, Spain, Germany and the EU, secured at high-level meetings in mid-July, underscores the political weight behind the transition.

The dual-manufacturer strategy is not without friction. The new Airbus aircraft won't arrive until 2031, forcing Biman to bridge the gap with up to ten leased planes expected to be operational next year. Running two fleets means separate crew training, distinct maintenance infrastructure and split spare-parts supply chains — costs that don't disappear. Still, industry observers see the diversification as a strategic plus, giving Biman stronger negotiating leverage with both manufacturers and flexibility for the planned expansion of Terminal 3 at Dhaka's Hazrat Shahjalal Airport.

A Stock That Won't Cooperate

The market, however, remains unimpressed. The shares closed Thursday at EUR 204.30, down 1.9 percent, and have shed 5.3 percent over seven trading sessions. That leaves the stock 7.7 percent below its 52-week high of EUR 221.25, reached in mid-January. The recent slide has been broad-based despite a steady stream of order announcements — Chinese carriers have been active buyers in recent months, Farnborough Airshow deals added to the tally, and Middle Eastern and Asian airlines keep expanding their fleets.

Analyst opinion is split on what comes next. Morgan Stanley raised its price target to EUR 255 in mid-August while reaffirming an Overweight rating — a stark contrast to the current price action. Days earlier, Sadif Investment Analytics downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold, cutting its target to EUR 201.51. The gap between those two views captures the broader debate over whether near-term risk or long-term program potential should carry more weight.

Technically, the picture is mixed rather than broken. The RSI sits at 48.3, a neutral reading, and the stock remains 5.5 percent above its 50-day average of EUR 193.74 — suggesting the recent correction has not yet fractured the medium-term uptrend.

For now, the A350F first flight in September stands as the next concrete catalyst. Whether Airbus can hold its certification timeline — and whether the freighter's progress can finally translate into share price support — remains the open question for the weeks ahead.