Airbus Faces a Steep Delivery Climb as Order Book Surges Past 1,000
Published on 08/09/2026 at 16:23 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The arithmetic is unforgiving. With 418 aircraft handed over through the end of July, Airbus must now deliver 452 more jets in the final five months of the year to hit its target of roughly 870 deliveries — an average of more than 90 per month. That pace would outstrip anything the manufacturer has achieved in the August-to-November window since 2023, and even last year's strong fourth-quarter sprint fell 32 aircraft short of the mark.
The July tally of 67 deliveries to 39 customers came in three units below Jefferies' internal estimate, though the brokerage maintained its "Hold" rating and €200 price target on Friday, arguing the annual goal remains within reach given an expected 8 percent acceleration in second-half output. The market appears untroubled by the math: shares closed at €214.05, up 5.42 percent over seven trading sessions and just 3.25 percent below the 52-week high of €221.25 set on January 13.
Orders Tell a Different Story
While the delivery pipeline strains, the order book is bulging. July brought 204 gross orders, including Riyadh Air's confirmation of six additional A350-1000s, a 100-aircraft commitment from leasing firm SMBC, China Eastern's order for 25 A330-900s, and six A321neos from an undisclosed customer. That pushed the first-half gross total to 886 orders, nearly double the 494 recorded a year earlier, with net orders after cancellations reaching 821 versus 402. The backlog now stands at 9,222 commercial aircraft.
The demand picture was reinforced at the Farnborough International Airshow last month, where Airbus signed a hydrogen-engine development pact with MTU Aero Engines, formed a sustainable aviation fuel joint venture with Air Canada, and launched a three-year flight test campaign using an A321neo demonstrator to trial high-aspect-ratio wings for its "Wing of Tomorrow" program — designs that would require folding wingtips to operate at existing airports.
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Half-Year Results Lay the Foundation
The financials released on July 29 provide the backdrop for investor confidence. Revenue climbed 12 percent to €33.2 billion, adjusted EBIT jumped 24 percent to €2.73 billion, and net profit rose to €2.24 billion, or €2.84 per share, from €1.53 billion a year earlier. The defense and space division contributed its own momentum, with order intake more than doubling to €9.3 billion and adjusted EBIT nearly doubling to €487 million.
The cash flow picture, however, reveals the cost of accelerated production: free cash flow before customer financing came in at minus €1.17 billion, with the overall figure at minus €1.04 billion. Management nonetheless reaffirmed its full-year guidance of roughly 870 deliveries, adjusted EBIT of about €7.5 billion, and free cash flow before customer financing of approximately €4.5 billion — contingent on no further disruptions to trade, air traffic, or supply chains.
A Longer Horizon and a Bigger Buyback
The company's ambitions extend well beyond 2026. At a London presentation on July 21, Airbus laid out a target of €12 billion to €13 billion in adjusted EBIT by 2029 — nearly double the projected 2025 level — driven by plans to ramp A320neo-family production to 75 aircraft per month by 2027. Vertical Research Partners' Rob Stallard characterized the new medium-term guidance as a direct response to long-standing investor complaints about insufficient planning visibility.
The following day, the board approved a €5 billion share buyback program to run over three years. Institutional interest is building in tandem: BlackRock disclosed a 5.96 percent stake in Airbus on Wednesday, representing 47,152,884 shares, a 26.6 percent increase from its previous filing.
Operational Milestones and Setbacks
Progress continues on multiple technical fronts. Ground vibration testing for the A350F freighter was completed on August 3, a key certification step ahead of first flight. Hisdesat selected Airbus as prime contractor for SpainSat NG-III, described by the company as Europe's most advanced secure communications satellite. Airbus Helicopters also delivered its first NH90 Standard 2, configured for special operations, to French procurement agency DGA.
Not everything went smoothly. Belgium's interfederal screening committee blocked the acquisition of helicopter operator NHV Group by Irish lessor GD Helicopter Finance, which is ultimately linked to Chinese interests. NHV, the launch customer for the Airbus H175, was slated to handle maintenance subcontracting for 20 H145M helicopters ordered by Belgium — a security dimension that appears to have influenced the review.
There was also a demonstration of long-haul capability: an A350-1000ULR test aircraft flew nonstop from Toulouse to Melbourne in 19 hours and 11 minutes, a milestone for Qantas' "Project Sunrise" ultra-long-haul program.
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The next official delivery update, covering August figures, is due in early September and will offer the first clear signal of whether Airbus can sustain the required tempo. The more definitive check comes on October 28, when third-quarter results are published. Between now and then, the monthly delivery rate remains the single most important metric for judging whether the manufacturer can close out the year as planned.
