AeroVironment's Expansion Machine Keeps Running — But the Share Price Is Stuck in Reverse

Drone maker's shares drop 65% from October high despite $100M campus, Greece JV, and $51M Army order; Q1 results due Sept 9.

The disconnect between AeroVironment's operations and its stock has rarely looked starker. Over the past twelve months, the drone maker has lost roughly 41 percent of its market value, even as it pushes into new geographies, breaks ground on a consolidated California headquarters and keeps ringing up Pentagon orders. The result is a company that looks busier than ever — and a share price that keeps finding new ways to disappoint.

A Campus, a Joint Venture and a Foothold in Europe

The latest infrastructure commitment came on Monday, when AeroVironment unveiled plans to spend $100 million on a company-owned campus in Moorpark, California. The facility, spread across roughly 20 hectares, is designed to absorb five currently leased sites across Southern California. Construction is slated to begin in fiscal 2028, with full operational readiness targeted for 2029 — a timeline that signals management is thinking in decades, not quarters.

The European push is arguably even more significant. Just over a week ago, the company announced it would establish an industrial presence in Greece through AV Eagle, a joint venture with Athens-based Eyeonix SA. The deal follows a finalized shareholders' agreement and clearance from the Greek foreign ministry's foreign direct investment review. For an American defense contractor, securing that kind of regulatory sign-off is rarely a short-term play — it's a deliberate positioning move inside Europe's evolving defense architecture.

AV Eagle is expected to become operational in fiscal 2027, with production capacity targeted for 2028. The venture fits a broader strategy of building manufacturing muscle outside the US and getting closer to European customers.

Orders Keep Flowing, Yet the Chart Keeps Falling

In between those strategic moves, the operational drumbeat continues. On Wednesday, AeroVironment announced a $51 million US Army order for Switchblade 600 Block 2 loitering munitions — the latest in a string of military procurement announcements that have stretched over recent weeks. The Army's broader decision to expand its drone purchasing dates back roughly three weeks, and the market's response has been notably muted.

That tension defines the stock right now. Trading at €126.10, the shares sit about 9.5 percent below their 50-day average of €139.31 — a technical signal that near-term momentum remains negative despite the steady flow of contract news. From the 52-week high of €359.50, set in October, the stock has surrendered 65 percent of its value. It now trades closer to its 52-week low than its peak.

There's also a political tailwind that hasn't translated into share price gains. Mid-month, the US administration imposed broad tariffs on foreign drone imports via executive order — a measure designed to benefit domestic manufacturers like AeroVironment. That the stock hasn't responded suggests investors are focused less on order flow and more on valuation and competitive pressures.

Institutional Buying, Insider Selling and a CEO Pay Jump

The ownership picture adds another layer of nuance. BlackRock has increased its stake to 3.48 million shares, representing 6.88 percent of the company, while Korea Investment Corporation, a sovereign fund, has also reported a new position.

Insiders, meanwhile, have been trimming. Board member Stephen F. Page sold 250 shares mid-month, and Brian Charles Shackley, finance chief for administrative matters, disposed of 205 shares. The amounts are negligible for a company of this size, but the symbolism of insider selling coinciding with institutional accumulation hasn't gone unnoticed.

Compensation is another flashpoint. According to a SEC filing, CEO Wahid Nawabi received an estimated $15.25 million in total compensation for fiscal 2026 — a 51.45 percent increase year over year. That jump lands awkwardly in a period when shareholders have watched the stock shed two-thirds of its value, sharpening the contrast between management pay and investor returns.

The Real Test Arrives in September

AeroVironment also made a board appointment earlier this month, bringing in Michael D. Ruppert, who brings more than 25 years of finance, strategy and corporate development experience in the aerospace and defense sector. Ruppert previously served as CFO of ManTech since 2023.

The fundamental question remains whether any of this operational momentum can restore investor confidence. The next checkpoint comes on September 9, when AeroVironment reports first-quarter results for fiscal 2027 after the market close — covering the period that ended in late July. That report will show whether the Moorpark and Greece investments, along with the Army orders, are actually translating into revenue and margin — or whether the market's skepticism is justified for now.