Adidas Holds Its Ground as Nike's Slump and Analyst Trims Reshape the Sportswear Narrative

Adidas closed Friday at EUR 144.25, up 0.7%, as Nike's revenue warning pressured sportswear peers; analysts cut price targets but kept buy ratings.

While a fresh profit warning from Nike rattled the broader sportswear complex, Adidas managed to stay on its feet. The Herzogenaurach-based group closed Friday's session at EUR 144.25, eking out a gain of 0.7% on the day even as sector sentiment soured. The resilience is relative, though: since the start of the year, the DAX-listed stock has shed 15%.

The trigger for the latest bout of nerves came from Oregon. Nike, the industry's undisputed heavyweight, reported a 4% revenue decline to USD 11.2 billion for its most recent quarter and guided toward a high-single-digit top-line drop for the full year. The warning rippled through the sector, reviving questions about whether consumers are pulling back on athletic footwear and apparel more broadly.

Yet Adidas absorbed the blow with far less damage than feared. Market watchers pointed out that the two giants are currently being hit by diverging trends, and some even framed Nike's prolonged weakness as an opening for its German rival to capture additional market share. That interpretation helped keep selling pressure contained through Friday's trading.

Price Targets Come Down, Ratings Stay Up

Analysts, however, are not standing still. JPMorgan's Wendy Liu trimmed her price target on Adidas from EUR 230 to EUR 210 on Friday while keeping an "Overweight" rating. Liu also cut her earnings forecasts for the company through 2028 by as much as 10%, citing a more cautious view of the entire industry rather than company-specific concerns.

Deutsche Bank Research followed suit the same day, with analyst Adam Cochrane lowering his target from EUR 210 to EUR 205 and maintaining a "Buy" recommendation. In Cochrane's assessment, sector-wide pressure intensified noticeably during the third quarter — a backdrop that makes management's official full-year guidance look realistic rather than conservative.

The revisions extend beyond Friday. Jefferies had already reduced its target from EUR 205 to EUR 187 a few days earlier, though it too stuck with a buy rating. And on September 30, Bernstein SocGen Group reaffirmed its "Outperform" call with a EUR 245 target, crediting Adidas's current product momentum and its decentralized operating model. Bernstein simultaneously flagged caution on demanding year-over-year comparisons, possible demand softness, and the risk of heavier discounting in retail channels. With other houses anchoring their targets near the EUR 200 mark, the analyst consensus still implies upside — just a more measured version of it.

A Product Pipeline That Keeps Moving

Adidas is not waiting for the macro picture to clear before refreshing its shelves. On Friday, the adidas Originals lifestyle unit unveiled an autumn collection with designer Willy Chavarria that leans into 1990s style cues. Days earlier, the company rolled out new entries in its FREERIDER mountain-bike shoe line, including versions equipped with a dedicated dial closure system. Special-edition drops have also landed in motorsport, developed with the Mercedes-AMG Petronas Formula 1 team, and in football for the Argentine national side.

Investors now have a fixed date to circle. On October 29, Adidas will publish its results for the first nine months of fiscal 2026, offering the first hard evidence of how the company's demand dynamics held up during the summer quarter against a weakening industry tide. Those figures will also test whether the group can defend its operating margin in a tougher consumer environment — and whether the stock's 15% year-to-date decline looks like an overreaction or a fair verdict.