XRP Traders Divided as Spot Accumulation Surges While Futures Speculators Bet on More Pain

XRP slides to $1.16 amid Fed's hawkish stance, yet institutional buyers and whales hoard tokens while derivatives traders pile on record shorts. CLARITY Act offers long-term hope.

The Federal Reserve has thrown a wrench into crypto markets, and XRP is feeling the squeeze. The token slid to around $1.16 on Thursday, shedding nearly 5% on the day, and has now lost more than 38% since the start of the year. But beneath the surface, two very different stories are unfolding: institutional buyers and whales are quietly hoarding tokens, while derivatives traders are piling on record short bets.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh left the benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% and signaled that rate cuts would come more slowly than the market had hoped. The immediate reaction was a broad risk-off move. Bitcoin dropped 2.2% to roughly $64,150, and Ethereum gave up 3.6%. XRP tumbled below the psychologically important $1.20 mark and is now testing a critical support zone between $1.1750 and $1.1850. If that floor fails, a slide toward $1.15 is the next stop. The $1.20 level has flipped from support into resistance, with the next hurdle looming between $1.24 and $1.30.

Whale and ETF buying tells a different story

While the price chart looks grim, on-chain data reveals a remarkable buildup. Exchange balances of XRP have plunged to a seven-year low of 1.6 billion tokens — a 50% drop since October 2025. Wallets holding more than 10 million XRP now control 68.5% of the circulating supply, according to one analysis, while another data set pegs large-holder control at 74% of the total supply. In the past six months alone, these whales have accumulated 1.53 billion tokens.

The spot market cumulative volume delta hit $267.4 million, its highest since mid-May, indicating persistent buying pressure even as prices fall. At the same time, US spot ETFs on XRP have attracted net cumulative inflows of $1.44 billion since their launch in November 2025. On June 16, they recorded their third consecutive day of positive flows at $5.3 million — right before the broader correction took hold.

In stark contrast, the futures market tells a bearish tale. The Binance perpetual cumulative volume delta slumped to a record low of minus $792 million, showing aggressive short positioning. Estimated leverage on XRP at Binance hit a new yearly high of 0.1899, making the token extremely vulnerable to cascade liquidations. Open interest in the futures market has shrunk from $10 billion last summer to just $2.55 billion now — a contraction that historically has preceded sharp directional moves.

Regulatory clock ticks toward a potential game-changer

Adding a layer of long-term optimism is the CLARITY Act, which has been on the US Senate calendar since June 1 after a 15-9 committee vote in May. The target passage date is July 4, 2026. The legislation would formally classify XRP as a digital commodity, a status already recognized by the SEC under Chair Paul Atkins for XRP, Bitcoin and Solana. Analysts at Standard Chartered and JPMorgan estimate that passage could unlock $4 billion to $8 billion in inflows to XRP-based investment products.

Africa expansion and stablecoin growth bolster the ecosystem

Off the price chart, Ripple continues to build out the XRP Ledger infrastructure. The RLUSD stablecoin has reached a market capitalization of $1.7 billion, with integrations into Mastercard and Flutterwave strengthening its role in cross-border payments. Ripple’s investment in the African payments platform Flutterwave aims to bring RLUSD to 34 markets across the continent. A live test involving Ripple, JPMorgan and Mastercard recently demonstrated that tokenized US Treasuries can settle on the XRPL in under five seconds.

The broader stablecoin market on the XRP Ledger has swelled from $277 million at the start of the year to $907 million, with RLUSD commanding an 84% share. Ripple is targeting $1 billion in annual revenue from sources beyond XRP by the end of the year, with the emerging-market push providing the foundation.

For now, the price remains pinned around $1.17, with traders split between bargain-hunting in the spot market and betting on further declines in futures. The legislative deadline of July 4, 2026, gives a clear, albeit narrow, window for regulatory clarity to intersect with tightening supply. Whether that combination will be enough to overpower the headwinds from monetary policy is the question hanging over every trade.