XRP Stuck in Political Limbo as CLARITY Act Odds Slump and Price Hovers Near $1.10

XRP faces dual deadlock: White House ethics fight tanks CLARITY Act probability to 32% on Polymarket, while price stays near $1.10 amid weak technicals and easing liquidation pressure.

XRP is trapped in a double stalemate. On one side, a bitter ethics fight inside the White House has pushed the odds of the CLARITY Act — a landmark crypto regulatory bill — to just 32% on Polymarket, the lowest since that market opened in January. On the other, the token's price has clung to the $1.10 area for days, unable to break decisively higher despite a modest 1.63% gain on Monday to $1.11.

The political drama reached a new stage on July 16, when President Trump, Republican Senators Bernie Moreno and Cynthia Lummis, and White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt gathered in the Oval Office to hash out the bill's ethics clause. The meeting was explicitly called for negotiation, not a briefing. Yet participants emerged with sharply different reads. One source expressed hope for a compromise, while another said Trump refused to commit to anything. Notably absent was Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego, who had led months of bipartisan ethics talks — and whose vote, along with other moderate Democrats, will be essential for passage in the Senate.

The ethics clause is the core obstacle. It would be the first federal law to close a conflict-of-interest loophole specifically in the crypto sector, and Democrats have made it a condition for their support. The controversy is sharpened by Trump's own financial disclosures, filed June 30, which run 927 pages and show licensing revenue of more than $635 million from the $TRUMP memecoin. "There's no point in a new crypto framework that doesn't address the president's own conflicts," Democratic Senator Chris Murphy bluntly said.

Time is running short. The Senate will recess after the first week of August for its long summer break, leaving only a few weeks to finalize the bill. Majority Leader John Thune has vowed to push forward in July with or without a finished ethics clause, but the calendar is unforgiving. After the break, attention will shift to the midterm elections, potentially shelving the bill until next year. The drop in Polymarket probability from a peak of 82% to the current 32% reflects exactly that scheduling anxiety.

The price chart tells a similar story of hesitation. XRP is trading just below its 50-day moving average of roughly $1.12–$1.13, and a full 21% below the 200-day average at $1.42. The token is still nearly 70% below its cycle high of $3.64 from summer 2025, and only about 10% above the 19-month low of $1.01 touched in June. On a year-to-date basis, XRP is down roughly 41%.

Derivative markets, however, are showing a subtle shift. CryptoQuant analyst Pelinay noted that several Binance indicators have flipped to neutral despite the ongoing downtrend. Liquidation data confirms the tug-of-war: about 103,000 XRP in longs were forcibly closed, versus 122,000 XRP in shorts, meaning selling pressure from liquidations has eased. Open interest in perpetual futures rose Monday to an average of 2.4 billion XRP, up from 2.13 billion the prior day, as traders position around the $1.10 battleground — but without a clear conviction for a breakout.

Institutional appetite remains tepid. Flows into XRP-based investment products have stayed below $1 million for two consecutive weeks. Combined with the lackluster open interest, that signals muted interest from both retail and professional investors. The broader crypto market offers no tailwind either, with Bitcoin sliding toward $64,000 and dragging altcoins like Ethereum and XRP along.

For XRP, the immediate technical picture hinges on whether the $1.08–$1.10 support zone holds. A drop below that would open the door to a retest of the June low at $1.01. To stage a meaningful recovery, the token would need to break through not just the 50-day moving average, but also the 100-day at $1.26 and the 200-day at $1.42 — a trio of hurdles that would require a catalyst far stronger than a narrow compromise in Washington.