XRP Stages Sharp Reversal as Weak US Jobs Data Revives Buying Pressure, Network Metrics Point to Accumulation Ahead of Fed Decision

XRP rebounded to $1.09 after a weak US jobs report eased rate hike fears. ETF inflows resumed, active addresses surged 72%, and technicals turned bullish.

A disappointing US jobs report has breathed fresh life into the cryptocurrency market, with XRP benefiting disproportionately from the sudden shift in sentiment. The token, which was trading just above its 52-week low at the end of June, has bounced back to around $1.09, snapping a brutal month that saw it shed more than 42% since the start of the year. The weak labour market data dampened fears of aggressive interest rate hikes, luring risk-hungry investors back into digital assets.

June was punishing for XRP holders. The token slid from roughly $1.30 to $1.04 — its weakest level since late 2024 — despite no negative news emanating from the Ripple ecosystem or the XRP Ledger. Instead, the decline was part of a broad selloff that dragged Bitcoin below $59,000 and punished Ethereum, Solana and BNB. XRP, which tends to amplify moves in the wider market, lost about 20% over the month. Even now, at $1.09, it remains 70% below its all-time high of $3.65 reached in July 2025.

The institutional picture is more nuanced. Spot-based XRP ETFs, which directly hold the underlying token and create genuine demand, had enjoyed eight consecutive weeks of net inflows before hitting a wall on June 30. That day marked the first net outflows since the funds launched, breaking a streak that had made XRP one of the few bright spots in a gloomy market. Overall, the ETFs have collected roughly $1.48 billion since their inception. In the week ending June 26, they still attracted $22.99 million — the strongest weekly haul of the month — led by Bitwise with $11.18 million and Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ fund with $3.80 million. By contrast, a single Bitcoin ETF shed $444.5 million in one day as BTC slumped under $60,000, underscoring how fund flows were running in opposite directions.

The jobs data appears to have reversed the outflow trend, at least temporarily. Ahead of the weekend, ETF products pulled in around $6.6 million, signalling renewed institutional appetite. This follows a pattern where XRP ETFs continued to draw capital even as the spot price weakened — a divergence that caught many market observers off guard during June.

Behind the scenes, the XRP network is buzzing with activity. The number of active addresses has surged 72% in just two weeks, and nearly 5,000 new wallets were created on the XRP Ledger in a single day late last month — the strongest such growth in three months. Exchange outflows tell a similar story: net outflows from trading platforms climbed from roughly 40.7 million XRP on June 22 to around 123 million XRP days later, a near-threefold increase. Such moves typically signal that investors are moving tokens into cold storage for long-term holding rather than preparing to sell. Sentiment in online forums has turned decisively bullish, with 3.7 positive comments for every negative one — a three-month high.

Technical indicators are also flashing green for the first time in weeks. The SuperTrend indicator has generated a fresh buy signal, and the TD Sequential model points to a potential macro reversal. The Relative Strength Index sits at 42.9, leaving room for further upside before entering overbought territory, while the 30-day annualised volatility hovers around 43%. The immediate ceiling lies at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level near $1.18, followed by the 20-period exponential moving average at roughly $1.22 — a level that has repelled every recovery attempt in recent weeks. Cost-basis analysis shows that 22.8 million XRP were acquired between $1.18 and $1.19, and another 27.4 million between $1.21 and $1.22, meaning these price zones are likely to act as stiff resistance.

Downside support, however, appears well defended. A dense buying zone between $1.00 and $1.06 has stabilised the token, with the 52-week low of $1.01 set on June 26 serving as the most important floor. A daily close below the psychological $1 mark could open the path toward $0.80. Both the 50-day moving average at $1.21 and the 200-day moving average at $1.49 remain well above the current price, underscoring that the broader trend is still bruised despite the recent 4% weekly gain.

All eyes now turn to the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on July 28-29. A hawkish tone from the committee would likely renew selling pressure on risk assets, including XRP, while a more dovish outlook could give the token further tailwinds. Whether the June 30 ETF outflows prove to be a one-off blip or the start of a prolonged cooldown will be decided at these exact technical levels in the weeks ahead. For now, the combination of weak jobs data, surging network adoption and positive fund flows has handed XRP a lifeline — but the real test is yet to come.