XRP's Two-Front Battle: Ledger Overhaul and Senate Vote Hold the Key as Price Stalls Near $1.15

XRP hovers at $1.16 amid extreme fear and a pivotal Senate vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act that could redefine its legal status and unlock billions in ETF inflows.

XRP is trapped between two powerful forces: an institutional push to modernize its blockchain and a legislative bid to cement its legal status. Neither has yet stopped the token's slide. At $1.16, it has clawed back 2.65% on the day, but the move feels tentative. The coin still sits roughly 68% below the all-time high it set in July 2025.

The broader crypto market offered no real tailwind — a modest 1.4% uptick across the sector. The Fear & Greed Index has plunged to 14, deep in "extreme fear" territory. Historically, such readings have triggered short-covering rallies and bargain hunting, but XRP's own fundamentals are mixed. One bright spot: daily active users on the XRP Ledger crossed 200,000 for the first time since March.

The Senate Clock Is Ticking

The single most consequential catalyst for XRP in the near term is the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. The bill would enshrine XRP as a digital commodity, insulating it from future SEC classification disputes. The House passed it in July 2025 by a 294-134 margin. After months of delay fueled by banking-lobby pushback and stablecoin squabbles, the Senate Banking Committee approved the measure 15-9 on May 14. It was placed on the Senate calendar June 1.

A floor vote is expected around mid-June, though a separate debate over banning crypto ownership for federal employees has slowed the process. Prediction markets reflect the uncertainty: Polymarket gives passage in 2026 a 55% chance, while Kalshi puts the odds of approval before the summer recess at 37%.

Standard Chartered has estimated that successful passage could unlock $4 billion to $8 billion in additional ETF inflows.

ETF Resilience and Institutional Footprints

While Bitcoin ETFs have bled in recent weeks, XRP-based products have held their ground. U.S. spot ETFs tracking XRP recorded net inflows of roughly $2.62 million last week, with only one negative trading day. Cumulative inflows across these products have surpassed $1.43 billion since their November 2025 launch.

Morgan Stanley disclosed a position in an XRP ETF in its Q1 2026 filing — the first time the bank has publicly held such an exposure. The move adds institutional credibility to an asset still fighting a bearish narrative.

Technical Picture: Support Holds by a Hair

The price chart offers little comfort. XRP trades well below both its 50-day moving average ($1.36) and 200-day moving average ($1.61). The relative strength index sits at 32.6 — just outside oversold territory. The critical support at $1.13 has held so far, but the margin is thin. A weekly close beneath that level would open the door to a drop toward the $0.90-to-$1.00 zone.

The 52-week low of $1.05, touched on June 6, is only a few cents away. On a year-to-date basis, XRP is down roughly 39%.

Derivatives data reveals an extreme imbalance: short positions outnumber longs by a ratio of about 9 to 1. A positive surprise — such as a Senate vote in favor of the CLARITY Act — could trigger a violent short squeeze, pushing the price far faster than fundamentals alone would justify.

Infrastructure Upgrade: More Than a Name Change

While the market frets over price, the XRP Ledger team is executing one of the biggest technical overhauls in its history. Version 3.2.0 has been announced, and it comes with a symbolic shift: the core software formerly known as "rippled" will be renamed "xrpld." All validators, infrastructure providers, and node operators must update their systems before the migration. A technical transition guide is under development.

This follows version 3.1.3, activated in May 2026, which carried fixes for NFTs, vault systems, and lending protocols. Version 3.2.0 focuses on the network's foundation, aiming to create a unified reference implementation.

Ripple CTO David Schwartz has articulated a strategic pivot: the XRP Ledger should evolve from a payments rail into a platform for institutional tokenization. Planned capabilities include support for tokenized repo deals, corporate loans, and equities. Schwartz expects institutional products to eventually open the door to retail DeFi.

The numbers offer partial validation. Tokenized assets on the XRPL have reached roughly $3.5 billion in volume this year. Ripple participated in a pilot with Ondo Finance, JPMorgan, and Mastercard, settling tokenized U.S. Treasuries in under five seconds. Separately, one analyst reported about $1.5 billion in fresh RWA inflows over the past 30 days, though the figure lacks official confirmation.

The Window Ahead

The convergence of a Senate vote and a major ledger upgrade creates a narrow window for XRP to break out of its slump. If the CLARITY Act clears the Senate before the August recess, the combination of legal clarity and improved infrastructure could draw the institutional demand that has so far remained on the sidelines. If the bill stalls, the token may have to weather another few months of selling pressure — and the $1.00 support level will face its sternest test yet.