XRP’s Split Market: Analyst Cuts Target 65% as On-Chain Activity Fades While ETF Assets Near $1 Billion

Standard Chartered cuts XRP forecast to $2.80; ETFs near $1B but active addresses hit 2026 low, leaving price stuck at $1.09.

Geoffrey Kendrick, a Standard Chartered analyst, slashed his year-end price target for XRP from $8 to $2.80 over the weekend, a 65% reduction that underscores the deepening divide within the token’s market. The move comes as XRP clings to $1.09, roughly 8% above a cycle low of $1.01 set on June 26, while trading 70% below its July 2025 all-time high of $3.65. On a year-to-date basis, the digital asset has shed nearly 42%.

Kendrick’s revision is rooted in a straightforward observation: institutional integration of XRP is progressing, yet it is not translating into price momentum. Despite Ripple’s regulatory strides, the anticipated bullish catalyst remains absent. That dynamic is compounded by political headwinds — the CLARITY Act, a US bill aimed at providing regulatory clarity for cryptocurrencies, missed its pre-summer voting window on July 4, dampening sentiment among institutional players even as the token’s price holds technical support.

The on-chain picture paints an even starker contrast. According to Santiment, daily active addresses on the XRP Ledger have fallen to 25,350, the second-lowest reading of 2026. New wallet creation slumped to 2,130, the weakest since November 2024. A brief uptick in activity on June 15 proved fleeting; analysts attribute that move to existing holders reshuffling positions rather than fresh demand entering the market. The number of new addresses barely budged during that rally, confirming the absence of new buyer interest.

Meanwhile, institutional demand via regulated products tells a different story. Seven US spot XRP ETFs collectively manage $996.65 million in assets, just $3.35 million shy of the $1 billion mark. Net inflows since inception total $1.48 billion, and weekly fund flows remained positive through late June despite the sluggish network metrics. Over the same period, approximately 123 million XRP tokens — worth about $134 million — were pulled from centralized exchanges in a single week, a 200% increase in withdrawal velocity. Holders controlling an estimated 68% of the total supply appear to be moving tokens into custody rather than selling.

Regulatory developments add another layer. Ripple secured a full MiCA license for the European Union, a CASP designation that permits expanded services in the region. That positive step is offset by a correction from former SWIFT executive Tom Zschach, who publicly dismissed speculation that XRP would be integrated into SWIFT’s payment network.

The sum of these forces is a market split down the middle. ETFs keep drawing institutional capital, exchange withdrawals signal conviction among large holders, and the price holds above $1. But the organic heartbeat of the network — active users and new participants — is withering. XRP now sits 6.95% below its 50-day moving average of $1.17 and a steep 25.26% below the 200-day average of $1.46. The Relative Strength Index at 44 suggests a market in wait-and-see mode, neither oversold nor overbought. Whether institutional inflows can eventually revive on-chain activity may depend on the next window for CLARITY Act passage and whether new wallet creation picks up in the weeks ahead.