XRP’s Institutional Milestone Meets Valuation Skepticism

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As 2025 draws to a close, the XRP token finds itself caught between institutional validation and a stagnant price performance. Despite the successful launch of U.S. spot ETFs and clearer regulatory skies, prominent industry voices are raising concerns about its fundamental value proposition. The core debate centers on whether XRP can evolve beyond a speculative asset or faces a potential re-rating.

On the fundamental front, significant progress is evident. U.S. spot exchange-traded funds for XRP have recently surpassed $1 billion in assets under management. Analysts note this effectively locks over 1.35 billion tokens into long-term custody, removing them from circulating supply. Ripple's underlying business operations are also expanding, with its RippleNet network processing more than $95 billion in payment volume throughout 2025—a trend bolstered by the settlement reached with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in August. Furthermore, the company's proprietary stablecoin, RLUSD, has achieved a market capitalization exceeding $1 billion.

Price Action Lags Behind Trading Frenzy

This institutional adoption contrasts sharply with the token's market performance. Currently trading at $1.83, XRP has declined approximately 16.70% over the past 30 days. This depreciation persists despite massive trading volume on South Korean exchanges like Upbit, reflecting broader uncertainty within the altcoin sector. The token now trades nearly 40% below its 52-week high of $3.04, even as robust retail interest in Asia continues.

A CEO's Caution on Token Economics

However, this very maturation into a "business" asset is what Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz cites as a potential long-term risk. He expresses skepticism regarding XRP's valuation model, arguing that tokens which move away from claiming "money" status—like Bitcoin—and are instead evaluated like traditional companies often face significantly lower multiples. He questions whether existing community narratives can withstand increasing competition from tokenized real-world assets (RWA).

Consolidation and Changing Dynamics

Market observers, including those at Nansen, anticipate XRP will consolidate around current levels through year-end. Another factor under discussion is the "priced out" theory: the rising entry barrier for small investors, as acquiring 1,000 XRP now requires about $1,830—substantially more than a year ago. Separately, Ripple's Chief Technology Officer David Schwartz has addressed concerns about the company's token sales, stating that new revenue streams aim to reduce future reliance on XRP liquidations to fund operations.

Heading into the new year, XRP possesses a solid operational foundation but a weakened technical chart outlook. Its near-term trajectory is expected to correlate closely with the Nasdaq and general risk-asset sentiment, with analysts forecasting a more favorable environment for altcoins only in the latter half of 2026.