XRP’s Hidden Rally: On-Chain Boom and Whale Buying Mask the Price’s Quiet $1.09

Despite XRP's 42% YTD drop and low price action, whale outflows tripled, active addresses surged 72%, and institutions poured $1.47B into ETFs, signaling bullish divergence.

XRP has barely budged at $1.09, yet the activity beneath the surface tells a markedly different story. Whale wallets have scooped up 123 million tokens from exchanges in recent days — a tripling of outflows from the prior 41 million — while network usage is exploding. Active addresses surged 72% in just two weeks, and nearly 5,000 new wallets were created on a single day in late June, the fastest clip in three months. The contrast between stagnant price and surging fundamentals has not gone unnoticed by institutional players, who have now poured roughly $1.47 billion into XRP-related spot ETFs since launch.

The token’s recent history is grim on the surface. After touching a 2025 low of $1.01 on June 26, XRP has managed only a 7.34% recovery. On a month-over-month basis it is down 10.11%, and year-to-date losses stand at 42.11%. The 50-day moving average sits at $1.21 and the 200-day at $1.49, both well above current levels, while the relative strength index of 42.9 signals neutral territory. Annualized volatility remains elevated at 42.74%.

But the price action that looked like mere stagnation has been jolted by macro tailwinds. A weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report last week revived risk appetite across crypto markets, giving XRP a 3.25% lift on Friday and a weekly gain of 4.24%. The SuperTrend indicator has flashed a fresh buy signal, and the TD Sequential model is hinting at a macro reversal. Yet near-term chart resistance is clear: the Fibonacci level at $1.18 and the 50-day moving average just above it have repelled every attempted breakout in recent weeks.

While traders watch those technical ceilings, the network’s organic expansion continues largely unnoticed. Ripple’s stablecoin RLUSD has crossed $2.5 billion in cumulative trading volume on the XRP Ledger, and 52% of its total supply now resides on the native blockchain, overtaking Ethereum as the dominant venue. Monthly transaction volumes for the stablecoin are approaching 1 million. RippleX recently launched a new credit protocol (XLS-65 and XLS-66) that lets banks manage loans and collateral directly on-chain, with interest calculations and repayment schedules automated while credit assessments remain off-chain. Validator voting on the required amendments is nearly complete, and testing began June 29.

A potentially more far-reaching development is XRP’s role in machine-to-machine payments. Ripple is partnering with Mastercard’s “Agent Pay for Machines” initiative to use the XRP Ledger for low-cost, high-speed autonomous payments between devices — a niche that could see explosive growth as artificial intelligence agents proliferate.

On the political front, the CLARITY Act — which would codify XRP as a digital commodity under U.S. law — has hit a procedural snag. The Senate recessed on June 29 without voting on the bill, which needs 60 votes for passage. Lawmakers return July 13 but will first focus on defense legislation, pushing an XRP vote to late July or early August at the earliest. The delay deprives the token of the regulatory clarity that bulls had hoped would provide a catalyst.

The next major directional cue comes from the Federal Reserve, which meets July 28–29. A hawkish tone could once again weigh on risk assets, while a dovish or neutral stance would likely fuel further gains. For now, the ecosystem data — from wallet accumulation and address growth to stablecoin milestones and cross-industry partnerships — is already telling a far more constructive story than the $1.09 print suggests.