XRP's Diverging Paths: Network Upgrade Advances as ETF Inflows Halt

Spot XRP ETFs record first weekly net outflow in nine weeks despite MiCA license win. Token trades near 52-week low, but bullish divergence and network upgrade offer hope.

XRP is caught between two opposing narratives. The XRP Ledger's technical upgrade is moving toward activation with strong validator support, yet institutional flows into spot ETFs have just posted their first weekly net outflow in nine weeks, and the token itself is hovering barely above its 52-week low.

ETF Streak Breaks at Nine Weeks

Spot XRP ETFs saw net withdrawals of $7.29 million for the week through July 9, according to the latest flow data. That figure marks the first negative weekly reading since early May; the preceding nine weeks had collectively pulled in $1.48 billion, a run that persisted even during sharp price declines earlier this year.

The outflow came despite several positive catalysts. Ripple received a full MiCA license from Luxembourg's CSSF, enabling regulated crypto payments across all 27 EU member states plus Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway. The preliminary approval in June had already triggered a small price drop, however — underscoring a recurring theme: regulatory wins for Ripple's payment business do not automatically translate into bullish momentum for XRP itself.

Technical Bounce Meets Overhead Resistance

XRP traded at $1.10 on Thursday, up modestly on a seven-day basis but still 41% below its level at the start of the year. Relative to the 52-week high of $3.65 set in July 2025, the token is down nearly 70%.

The price has broken above its recent tight range on strong volume, with $1.10 now viewed as a support level rather than resistance. Traders are watching for a daily close above the 20-day moving average at $1.1119 — a move that would signal this attempt to crack a yearlong downtrend line might be different from two prior failures. The first try stalled near $1.30, the second collapsed entirely.

The relative strength index sits at 47.16 and has formed a bullish divergence: XRP printed lower lows in June while the RSI traced higher lows, a pattern that historically precedes trend shifts.

Still, the longer-term picture remains bleak. The 50-day and 100-day moving averages at $1.1705 and $1.2712 respectively are both above the spot price, and the 200-day average at $1.4801 represents a 25% climb from current levels. On the downside, $1.0880 offers immediate support, with the $1.00–$1.05 zone serving as a safety net should the breakout attempt fail.

Network Upgrade Crosses Key Threshold

While the price languishes, the XRP Ledger’s upgrade to version 3.2.0 has cleared a critical technical hurdle. Nearly 89% of validators on the standard Unique Node List — 31 out of 35 — have installed the new software, surpassing the 80% activation threshold. The upgrade now enters a two-week confirmation window; if validator support holds above 80% for the full period, the new version becomes mandatory.

A separate on-ledger vote is underway for an amendment called fixCleanup3_2_0, which bundles security fixes for recent features such as Lending, Vaults and Multi-Purpose Tokens. That amendment has been slower to gain consensus, though Ripple itself has already cast its vote. Validators that fail to upgrade risk an "amendment-blocked" status that would disconnect them from the network.

Node-level adoption lags behind: only 43% of active nodes run 3.2.0, while 51% remain on the older 3.1.3. That gap is less consequential than it appears, since the activation rule relies on validator voting weight rather than node count.

A minor GitHub issue surfaced during the rollout — one case where the service log showed a new validator key while the running server still used an old key from the wallet database — but developers classified it as a migration edge case rather than a protocol flaw.

Mixed Signals on the Ground

The underlying network continues to show organic growth. Active addresses on the XRP Ledger have topped 8.4 million, boosted by tokenization and stablecoin activity.

Yet sentiment among retail holders is fraying. Ripple's decision to sponsor the University of Kansas Jayhawks athletic teams — putting XRP patches on jerseys — drew more frustration than applause from the community. CEO Brad Garlinghouse described the sponsorship as a rare overlap of his professional and personal life, but many token holders view such marketing spend as tone-deaf while the price wallows.

Daily trading volume stands at $1.44 billion, with a market capitalization of $68.33 billion. The next few days will be pivotal: a sustained close above the 20-day moving average would mark the first real evidence that this breakout attempt has legs, while a break below $1.00 would put the token's 52-week low of $1.01 under serious threat.