XRP Faces Mounting Pressure as Long-Term Holders Exit

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As the year draws to a close, XRP is losing momentum despite a landmark period characterized by ETF approvals and the resolution of its protracted legal battle with U.S. regulators. The cryptocurrency is now under intense technical and fundamental scrutiny heading into 2026, as institutional inflows via new products are being overwhelmed by significant selling from established investors.

A substantial shift in ownership dynamics is the primary driver behind the current price decline. While the U.S. spot ETFs approved in November have absorbed approximately 750 million XRP—a development that would typically provide upward price pressure—this demand is being met with a powerful wave of selling. Long-term holders, those who have held their coins for two to three years, have drastically reduced their share of the total supply from over 14% in November to below 6% by late December. These veteran investors appear to be strategically using the liquidity provided by ETF-driven demand to secure profits.

Parallel to this, a cleanup is occurring in the derivatives market. Open Interest has declined to around $450 million, marking its lowest level since November 2024. This reduction in speculative positions suggests many traders are stepping back rather than betting on an imminent trend reversal.

Technical Indicators Flash Caution

Recent selling pressure has clouded the technical outlook. XRP is currently trading at $1.83, a level that places it not only below the 50-day moving average of $2.10 but also beneath key psychological support thresholds.

Market analysts now identify the zone between $1.86 and $1.90 as a critical resistance area. Bulls must reclaim this territory to prevent a deeper correction toward $1.70. Although an RSI reading of 28.8 indicates an oversold market condition, it does not guarantee an immediate price floor has been established.

A Mixed Fundamental Landscape

Beyond the price action, the fundamental picture presents a contrast. On the positive side, the integration of the XRP Ledger into traditional finance continues to advance, notably in Japan. Ripple has formed a partnership with Mizuho Bank and SMBC Nikko Securities there to drive the tokenization of real-world assets.

Conversely, the DeFi sector on the XRP Ledger is struggling with outflows; the Total Value Locked (TVL) has nearly halved since July. Additionally, a key personnel change is generating discussion: Chief Technology Officer David Schwartz is stepping back from day-to-day operational duties and moving into an advisory role, signaling the end of an era for the project's technical leadership.

The key question for the trading sessions ahead is whether institutional demand from ETFs can remain robust enough to absorb the persistent selling from long-term holders and facilitate a stabilization above the $1.80 mark.