XRP Faces Critical Test as Price Battles Key Support Level

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Despite achieving significant regulatory clarity and the launch of new investment products, XRP has struggled to establish sustained upward momentum as the year draws to a close. The digital asset's price has declined since January and is now caught in a technical stalemate. This persistent weakness stems from a clear clash between fresh institutional capital and substantial profit-taking by long-term holders.

A primary factor behind the sluggish price action is intense selling pressure from so-called "old whales." On-chain analytics reveal that a cohort of long-term investors, who initially entered positions around $0.40, recently liquidated approximately 350 million XRP near the $2.00 price level. These realized gains, valued at over $720 million, have acted as a ceiling on the price, absorbing incoming demand.

Counteracting this pressure is growing institutional interest. Since the debut of U.S. spot ETFs in November 2025, these funds have attracted net inflows exceeding $1.1 billion. The ETFs now hold roughly 1.35 billion XRP, reducing the liquid supply on exchanges by nearly 45% over the past 60 days. While this scarcity is building a solid long-term foundation, the ETFs' settlement mechanisms mean their impact cannot immediately offset the concentrated selling from whales in the short term.

Technical Indicators Signal a Precarious Position

From a chart perspective, XRP is consolidating within a range that often precedes a significant price move. The token is currently trading at $1.83, just below a crucial support band between $1.84 and $1.85. A sustained break below this level could open the door to a decline toward deeper liquidity zones.

On the upside, buyers face a formidable resistance area spanning $1.96 to $2.00. Market experts note that a decisive reclaim of the $1.96 level is likely needed to shift momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), now reading 28.8, indicates oversold conditions, which could support a near-term technical rebound.

Ecosystem Developments Amid Price Uncertainty

Beyond the price battle, the XRP ecosystem continued to mature in Q4 2025. In mid-December, the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) granted Ripple a conditional banking charter, facilitating its integration into traditional financial infrastructure. Furthermore, the SPAR retail chain in Switzerland has begun accepting XRP for payments.

Investor sentiment, however, remains cautious. A survey conducted by the Gemini crypto exchange found that a majority of investors (73%) anticipate prices between $1.50 and $2.00 for the year-end period. Analysts at Nansen suggest this sideways trading pattern could extend into the first half of 2026. The key focus for the coming weeks will be whether the $1.85 support can be regained to prevent a slide toward the $1.50 region.