XRP Caught Between Regulatory Delay and SWIFT Pilot as ETF Outflows Test $1.10 Support

XRP trades at $1.11 amid conflicting signals: CLARITY Act deadline missed, SWIFT pilot with 17 banks, ETF outflows of $7.29M, and whale accumulation.

The conflicting forces shaping XRP’s market could hardly be starker. On one side, a long-awaited piece of US crypto legislation missed a critical White House deadline, pushing the next window for clarity into August and leaving buyers with little urgency. On the other, a SWIFT pilot involving 17 major banks—including Standard Chartered and UBS—has injected fresh institutional narrative into the token, even if the direct link to XRP’s utility remains hotly debated.

Against that backdrop, XRP trades at $1.11, up 1.94% on the day, yet down roughly 41% year-to-date and dangerously close to its 52-week low of $1.01. The token’s price action reflects a market caught between genuine technological milestones and persistent macro and political headwinds.

Institutional flows paint a cautious picture

The most immediate pressure point is the ETF market. On July 8, spot XRP ETFs recorded net outflows of $7.29 million—the largest single-day exodus since March, with Bitwise absorbing the entirety of the withdrawals. Month-to-date inflows now total just $4.68 million, a fraction of the sums seen in earlier months. This suggests institutional enthusiasm, which had been building through the spring, is cooling as investors reassess the near-term catalyst calendar.

The long-to-short ratio has slipped to 0.96, indicating a slight bearish tilt among derivatives traders. Open interest has also contracted noticeably in recent days, pointing to a lack of conviction among speculators.

Yet not all on-chain signals point to weakness. Large wallets, often referred to as whales, have been steadily accumulating during the dip, and XRP supply on Binance has fallen to a two-year low—a pattern historically associated with reduced selling pressure.

Legislative timeline slips as technical narrative evolves

The most tangible near-term disappointment is the “CLARITY Act,” which failed to meet a White House review deadline on July 4. The next realistic window for a decision opens in early August, leaving the market in a policy vacuum. For a token whose recent price trajectory has been heavily tied to US regulatory developments, the delay has removed a key bullish catalyst.

Meanwhile, Ripple continues to advance its institutional footprint. The SWIFT pilot—which involves 17 banks testing blockchain-based payments—builds on Ripple Treasury’s inclusion in the SWIFT Certified Partner Program earlier this year. Proponents see this as validation of the XRP Ledger’s role in cross-border settlement. Skeptics, including a prominent analyst who argued on X that the pilot relies on tokenized bank deposits rather than XRP itself, counter that the token’s native utility has not been proven by the announcement.

Separately, Ripple has inked a multi-year marketing deal with Kansas Athletics, securing branding space across football, basketball, and other sports programs—a reminder that the company is investing in mainstream visibility even as the token struggles.

Technical picture leaves little room for error

At $1.11, XRP trades 5.54% below its 50-day moving average of $1.18. The relative strength index sits at 47.2, squarely in neutral territory, offering no directional conviction from momentum indicators. The token is down nearly 70% from its yearly high of $3.65 set last summer.

Analysts see the $1.05–$1.00 zone as a critical support floor. A sustained break below that could open the door to $0.90, a level not tested in months. Conversely, a convincing move above $1.20—backed by meaningful volume—would shift the narrative toward a possible run at $1.40.

For now, the market appears content to wait. Until the August legislative window offers a clearer view—or the SWIFT pilot produces tangible evidence of XRP usage—the token seems destined to drift in a narrow range between regulatory hope and technical reality.