XRP Breaks $1.10 as Exchange Stockpiles Shrink and On-Chain Activity Jumps

XRP rises past $1.10 amid declining Binance reserves, surging network activity, and nine straight weeks of ETF inflows, though derivatives signal caution.

XRP has finally punched through the $1.10 resistance that capped its recovery for weeks, trading near $1.14 with a weekly gain of nearly 8%. The breakout comes as a confluence of supply tightening, surging network activity, and sustained institutional interest creates a more constructive backdrop for the token, even if broader market sentiment remains cautious.

The supply side tells a compelling story. Binance, the world's largest exchange, has seen its XRP reserves dwindle from 3.27 billion tokens in November 2024 to just 2.6 billion today — a drop of roughly 650 million coins, or 20%. The pace of withdrawals accelerated between May and early July, pushing Binance's own scarcity index — which measures the ratio of available supply relative to demand — to 0.77, the highest since summer 2024. That index had briefly collapsed to 0.34 in late June, a level that coincided with XRP's slide to $1.057 on the 24th. The fact that reserves are now shrinking while the price stabilizes suggests holders are moving coins off exchanges rather than preparing to sell.

Network data reinforces the shift. Active addresses on the XRP Ledger surged 72% over two weeks, and exchange outflows tripled to roughly 123 million tokens in the latest period. That reduction in readily available supply lowers the selling pressure that has weighed on the token since its peak above $3.65 in July 2025. XRP still sits nearly 70% below that high, and 39.78% lower year-to-date. The 200-day moving average at $1.47 remains a distant ceiling, and the 50-day line at $1.20 is now the immediate upside test. The relative strength index at 50 points to a neutral market, with neither buyers nor sellers in control.

Institutional flows have been a rare bright spot. XRP spot ETFs posted inflows for the ninth consecutive week, collecting $17.19 million in the latest period alone. That streak stands out because Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs both saw net outflows over the same timeframe. Cumulative ETF inflows have now reached roughly $1.47 billion, signaling that professional investors are treating XRP as a distinct allocation rather than a correlated bet on the broader crypto market.

Ripple is also moving to strengthen its institutional positioning. The company joined a Wall Street-backed stablecoin consortium and, through its supported firm Evernorth, filed a trademark application on the Cayman Islands as part of an XRP treasury initiative. These steps extend Ripple's reach beyond payments into the infrastructure layer of digital asset markets.

Derivatives markets, however, tell a more measured story. Funding rates on XRP perpetuals turned deeply negative in late June, precisely when the token hit its local low of $1.01. The subsequent recovery to current levels has been accompanied by a return to slightly positive funding, but that reflects short covering rather than fresh long accumulation. The move back above $1.10 is constructive, but it lacks the euphoria that typically fuels sustained breakouts.

The immediate technical picture hinges on whether XRP can hold the newly established support near $1.10. If it does, the $1.20 level becomes the natural next target, with the 200-day moving average offering a larger prize further out. A failure to defend $1.00, on the other hand, opens the door to a potential slide toward $0.93. Trading volume has pulled back slightly, which often precedes a directional move, but the direction remains an open question.

Macro factors could tip the balance. The New York Fed releases consumer inflation expectations for June on July 7, followed by the FOMC minutes the next day. Softer inflation reads would raise the odds of a Fed rate cut, providing a tailwind for risk assets including XRP. For now, the supply squeeze and ETF demand offer a foundation, but the catalyst for a decisive move higher has yet to arrive.