XRP at a Potential Turning Point as Technical and Institutional Factors Converge

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As 2025 draws to a close, the XRP cryptocurrency finds itself at a potentially pivotal juncture. Price action has been confined to a narrow band between $1.84 and $1.87 for several weeks, but a combination of a rare technical indicator and ongoing institutional developments suggests a trend reversal may be brewing for 2026.

Despite a lackluster price performance, the spot XRP ETFs launched in November and December 2025 continue to demonstrate robust demand. These funds have accumulated assets between $1.13 billion and $1.25 billion over just seven weeks of trading. This steady inflow presents a stark contrast to recent outflows observed in some Bitcoin ETFs.

In a significant regulatory development on December 12, 2025, Ripple secured a conditional national bank charter from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). The newly chartered entity, Ripple National Trust Bank, is now authorized to manage assets and process payments, though it is not yet permitted to accept customer deposits.

A Rare Technical Signal Flashes

Market analysts are focusing on an extreme technical signal appearing on XRP's three-week chart. The Stochastic RSI indicator has touched 0.0—an absolute minimum level. This event has only occurred once before in XRP's history, in 2020, which immediately preceded the formation of a lasting price bottom at $0.28. Many researchers interpret this extreme reading as a potential sign that selling pressure may be exhausted.

From a chart perspective, the crucial support level to watch is $1.80. A sustained break below this threshold could technically open the door for a move toward $1.37 or even $1.10. On the upside, resistance is seen at $1.96 and at the 50-day moving average near $2.00. A decisive close above these levels would be necessary to confirm a bullish reversal.

Strategic Position in Tokenization and Regulatory Hurdles

The broader context for XRP's utility was highlighted by Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson on December 26. He pointed to XRP's strategic position within the emerging tokenized real-world asset market, a sector he estimates holds a $10 trillion potential. Hoskinson noted that networks like XRP already provide the foundational infrastructure that traditional financial institutions are now seeking to replicate.

Ripple's own stablecoin, RLUSD, has reached a market capitalization of $1.3 billion since its launch. With a Velocity score of 71, it trails only Tether in this metric, indicating a high level of usage for actual payment transactions.

A key remaining challenge for broader institutional adoption lies in banking regulation. Under current Basel III rules, banks must hold $12.50 in capital for every $1 of XRP on their balance sheets. A reclassification of XRP's risk weight is viewed as necessary to make the asset more attractive for institutional portfolios.

The convergence of these technical and fundamental factors sets the stage for a potentially decisive move for XRP as it transitions into the new year.