XRP at a Crossroads: The Battle for $2 Support

XRP 3604058040CR

The price of XRP is currently testing a critical psychological threshold near $2, consolidating after a recent pullback. This movement coincides with a confluence of significant factors: shifting U.S. regulatory winds, notable on-chain activity from major holders, and a resurgence of institutional capital through exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The coming days will determine whether this level acts as a springboard for recovery or succumbs to renewed selling pressure.

Despite the price dip, U.S.-listed XRP spot ETFs are telling a different story. Data reveals that these products attracted net inflows of approximately $4.9 million on January 13, reversing a prior trend of outflows that had seen over $40 million exit in preceding days. Since their launch in late 2025, these spot ETFs have collectively gathered more than $1.2 billion—a substantial figure for a non-Bitcoin cryptocurrency fund. These inflows, occurring alongside price softness, suggest larger market participants may view the $2 region as an accumulation zone rather than a reason to exit.

Regulatory Headwinds from Washington

A primary catalyst for the broader market correction is a delay in U.S. legislative progress. The anticipated mid-January review of the Market Structure Bill by the Senate Agriculture Committee has been postponed. This uncertainty has dampened sentiment, as market participants had initially expected a smoother procedural timeline.

The resulting risk-off move impacted digital assets across the board, with XRP included. In the near term, questions over future regulatory frameworks and the legal classification of digital assets are creating headwinds. Despite this, XRP maintains a net gain since the start of the year and continues to hover just above the key $2 level, indicating its longer-term upward structure may still be intact.

In parallel, Ripple Labs continues its proactive engagement with regulators. The company's legal team submitted a new communication to the SEC's Crypto Task Force on January 9, 2026. The core argument reiterates the need for a clear distinction between securities offerings and the underlying digital tokens—a crucial point for XRP's long-term regulatory clarity.

On-Chain Activity: Whale Movements and Exchange Outflows

Blockchain data highlights substantial token movements. On January 5, 2026, a transfer of 300 million XRP (valued at roughly $652 million) was initiated from a wallet controlled by Ripple to an unknown address. This transaction set the tone for subsequent large-investor activity.

Another significant shift followed on January 13, involving about 73 million XRP worth over $150 million moving between anonymous wallets. Market observers note that the tokens have remained within the ecosystem, suggesting these are likely internal liquidity rebalancing moves by exchanges or custodians rather than direct selling pressure, as no corresponding order book dumps were observed.

A separate bullish signal comes from exchange netflows. According to CoinGlass data, the past 24 hours saw approximately $22.43 million worth of XRP withdrawn from trading platforms. Sustained negative netflows—where withdrawals exceed deposits—are generally viewed positively, as they reduce the readily available supply for immediate selling. During this consolidation phase, this trend supports the thesis that some investors are moving holdings into private custody for longer-term storage.

Technical and Derivatives Landscape

The derivatives market reflects a standoff between bullish and bearish traders. Significant long positions have been established around $2.01, with closely clustered liquidation levels, effectively creating a defensive line for the bulls.

Immediate overhead resistance now lies between $2.11 and $2.23. A sustained recovery above the $2.23 mark is needed to decisively improve the short-term technical picture and challenge the recent downward trend.

From a chart perspective, risks remain. While XRP trades near $2.05, just above its 50-day moving average of $2.03, it has shed significant value over the past week and sits roughly one-third below its 52-week high. However, a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 28.8 indicates deeply oversold conditions, which, combined with the rising exchange outflows, could provide fuel for a technical rebound.

Key Developments to Watch:

• Delay in U.S. Market Structure Bill weighs on sentiment.
• Ripple submits new commentary to the SEC, increasing regulatory pressure.
• U.S. spot ETFs return to net inflows following a period of outflows.
• On-chain metrics reveal substantial wallet activity and sustained exchange withdrawals.

Conclusion: The $2 Pivot Point

In the short term, XRP remains highly sensitive to U.S. political developments. The stalled legislative progress has fueled risk aversion, pulling the price down from its January peaks. Yet, contrasting signals from ETF inflows, whale activity, and exchange withdrawals imply that many view the $2 area as an attractive entry point.

For the weeks ahead, this $2 zone will serve as the central battleground. If support holds despite regulatory uncertainty, analysts see potential for a recovery toward the $2.50 to $2.80 range. Conversely, a decisive and broad-based breakdown below this level would signal that recent positioning is insufficient to absorb the existing selling pressure.