Xiaomi Stock Rebounds on Skynomad Hybrid Hopes and EV Records, but Chip Cost Storm Looms

Xiaomi shares gain amid record EV deliveries and new hybrid brand Skynomad, but a 130% jump in DRAM prices threatens smartphone margins. Factory expansion continues.

Xiaomi’s shares have climbed 13.2% from their 52-week low of €2.34, struck on 26 June, and closed Friday at €2.65 — a daily gain of 3.31% and a weekly advance of 7.94%. The recovery, however, masks two powerful and opposing currents: a record-breaking run in electric vehicle deliveries and the launch of a family-oriented hybrid brand versus an impending 130% jump in memory-chip costs that threatens the smartphone margin engine.

The company delivered more than 30,000 EVs for the third consecutive month in June, bringing first-half 2026 deliveries to nearly 180,000 units. Xiaomi is now targeting 550,000 vehicles for the full year, a goal that demands a sharp production ramp in the second half. To sustain demand for its flagship SU7, Xiaomi will roll out a new financing scheme called “Easy Pay” on 1 July, requiring a ¥49,900 down payment followed by low monthly instalments and annual lump sums — an explicit response to China’s brutal EV price war.

In a strategic pivot away from pure battery-electric drivetrains, Xiaomi has unveiled a second vehicle brand: Skynomad. Priced under €26,000, the first model — internally codenamed Kunlun N3 — is a family SUV that uses a petrol engine as a range extender. It will take on the Li L9, Aito M9 and Leapmotor D19 when it hits the market in the second half of 2026. The move opens up the extended-range electric vehicle (EREV) segment, a space long dominated by Li Auto, but one that is now contracting sharply. Wholesale EREV sales dropped almost 25% in May, the steepest monthly decline in five years, and Li Auto’s L9 deliveries cratered 74% year-on-year in the first four months of 2026. Xiaomi is entering a shrinking market.

To support its expanded model range, Xiaomi is pushing ahead with factory expansion in Beijing Yizhuang. The first phase, operational since 2023, produces 150,000 units annually. Phase two will lift total capacity to around 300,000 units, and the company has secured an adjacent plot for a third phase, though specific capacity targets have yet to be disclosed. For now, nearly all sales remain concentrated in China.

Meanwhile, the smartphone division faces a different kind of pressure. Research firm Gartner expects DRAM chip prices to rise as much as 130% by the end of 2026, squeezing margins in Xiaomi’s core handset business. Jefferies analysts are notably cautious, pointing to the combination of rising component costs and ongoing start-up losses in EV production. Citi, however, maintains a buy rating with a Hong Kong dollar target of HK$37, betting that Xiaomi can pass on some of the cost increases through premium pricing and new models such as the upcoming YU7 series.

On the charts, the stock has left behind the oversold territory of recent weeks — the relative strength index now reads 40.5 — but still sits 59.29% below its 52-week high of €6.51 from September 2025. The 50-day moving average of €3.06 and the 200-day average of €3.97 both remain well above the current price. Traders will watch the €2.70 level next week; a sustained break above that mark would confirm the short-term uptrend.

Longer-term, the picture is sobering. Year-to-date the stock is down 40.98%, and over twelve months the loss stands at 57.78%. Investors are also keeping an eye on the planned European expansion, expected in 2027, and any new AI-powered smart-home products that could lift sentiment.

Xiaomi’s overarching strategy is clear: rather than cut prices in the overheated EV arena, it is carving out niches with new drivetrains and brand concepts. To bolster that effort, the company is diversifying its battery supply chain, bringing in Sunwoda and CALB to reduce reliance on CATL. Yet the EREV market’s slide and the chip-cost squeeze mean the stock’s recovery remains fragile — and heavily dependent on how these two opposing forces play out in the second half of 2026.