Xiaomi Stock Plunges to New Low as Goldman Warns of 50% Profit Crash—Despite ?59,999 Phone Launch

Xiaomi shares plunge to a new 52-week low after Goldman Sachs warns of a 50% year-on-year drop in Q2 profit, despite strong Q1 smartphone sales and a new Leica phone launch.

The same day Xiaomi began selling its premium 17T smartphone in India with a Leica-branded camera system, its stock carved out a fresh 52-week trough in Hong Kong. And the warning from Goldman Sachs that landed alongside the launch left little doubt why investors fled. The investment bank is bracing for a roughly 50% year-on-year plunge in adjusted net profit for the second quarter, leaving just 5.4 billion yuan on the bottom line.

The core business is bleeding. Without the newer electric-vehicle and artificial-intelligence divisions, Goldman estimates group revenue would contract. The smartphone segment alone is expected to run an operating loss of more than 4 billion yuan. Meanwhile, the EV unit is burning through over 1 billion yuan. The downdraft on the mainland auto market only adds to the pressure—sales fell 22.3% year-on-year in May, the eighth consecutive monthly decline.

Against that grim outlook, Xiaomi’s first-quarter numbers show a company still capable of solid execution. The group shipped 33.8 million phones, generating smartphone revenue of 44.3 billion yuan at a gross margin of 10.1%—squeezed by rising memory costs. Average selling prices hit a record 1,310 RMB, up 8.2% from a year earlier, with devices priced above 3,000 RMB accounting for 23.5% of China-unit sales. Total group revenue came in at 99.1 billion yuan, and the EV and AI segment contributed nearly 20 billion yuan. Yet those figures now feel like a high-water mark.

Goldman responded by slicing its full-year profit estimate by 12% to 32.8 billion yuan. Still, the bank kept its buy rating and HK$40 price target, implying a more than 150% upside from the current share price. That disconnect between analyst optimism and market reality is stark. On Wednesday, the stock closed at €2.91, barely 1.75% above the previous 52-week low of €2.86. On Thursday it crashed through that floor, touching €2.84. Year-to-date, Xiaomi is down roughly 37%, and over the past twelve months it has shed 51.35% of its value. The 52-week high of €6.69 now sits more than 56% away.

Technical indicators flash the same message: the relative strength index has dropped to 29.4, deep in oversold territory after the latest leg down. A day earlier it was at 31.8—also oversold but not as extreme. Whether either signal marks a bottom or just a pause before more selling depends on Xiaomi’s ability to convert higher prices into better margins, especially as component costs press from below.

Management is not standing still. The Xiaomi 17T, starting at 59,999 Indian rupees (54,999 with a bank discount), is now available via Amazon India, Xiaomi’s own site, and retail stores. It packs a 50-megapixel main camera, a 5x periscope telephoto with 115 mm equivalent, and a 12-megapixel ultrawide, all developed with Leica. The phone runs HyperOS 3 on Android 16. Later this year, the company will launch a new electric SUV in late summer, roll out HyperOS 4 with integrated AI features, and in September unveil the next-generation smartphone lineup in China.

All those products will have to overcome the same headwind: Goldman’s Q2 preview suggests the core phone business is burning cash, the EV business is losing money, and the broader Chinese consumer market remains subdued. The official second-quarter report is due on August 26. Until then, the stock is left to trade on hope—and at a level that already prices in a lot of pain.