Xiaomi Stock Jumps on New SUV Reveal, Even as Memory Shortage Shrinks Smartphone Target by a Third

Xiaomi shares rise 5.2% after unveiling SkyNomad N90 EV, but smartphone 2026 forecast slashed by a third to 95 million units due to global memory chip shortage.

Xiaomi’s shares closed at €2.95 on Friday, climbing 5.21% in a single session and 11.30% for the week, even as the company delivered stark news on its core smartphone business. The stock has been lifted by the unveiling of the SkyNomad N90, a three-row extended-range electric SUV with a combined range of over 1,500 kilometers — but that headline hides a brutal reality in Xiaomi’s handset division.

The smartphone forecast for 2026 has been slashed by roughly a third, from 135 million units to 95 million, thanks to a global memory chip shortage. Demand from AI infrastructure is soaking up production capacity that once served the mobile industry, and Xiaomi has been forced to communicate the revised target to its suppliers in recent weeks. It is hardly alone: China’s three largest Android makers have all cut their 2026 goals by up to 30%, with one rival trimming from 110 million to 95 million — a 44% drop from last year’s 170 million shipments, according to Nikkei Asia.

The mid-year sales festival in China, a bellwether for consumer appetite, underscored the pain. Budget and mid-range handsets, Xiaomi’s traditional stronghold, took a particular hit as price-sensitive buyers balked at higher device costs. Gartner predicts the chip crunch will reduce global smartphone shipments by 8.4% in 2026 while pushing average selling prices up 13% from 2025. Analyst Ranjit Atwal called the scale and duration of price hikes “unprecedented” and does not expect relief until late 2027.

Against that backdrop, the SkyNomad N90 — launched on July 9, 2026 — offers a very different narrative. CEO Lei Jun pitched it as a “living room on wheels,” designed for families, with a flat floor and long seat rails enabled by the new Kunlun architecture. It marks Xiaomi’s second major EV push after the SU7 and YU7 models, and directly targets Li Auto’s L9 and Huawei-backed Aito in the growing Chinese EREV segment. Reservations open in the third quarter, with deliveries expected by the end of that period.

The wider strategy, dubbed “Human x Car x Home,” aims to weave smartphones, vehicles, and smart-home devices into a single ecosystem. On the production side, Xiaomi delivered more than 30,000 EVs for the third consecutive month in June — steady, if not explosive, output that management is trying to make more efficient with a recycled aluminium alloy called Titan Alloy 2.0 for gigacasting.

Technically, the stock has room to run. The 50-day moving average sits at €3.01 and the 200-day at €3.89, both above the current price, but the RSI of 60.6 signals no overbought condition. Annualized 30-day volatility stands at a high 42.47%, and the shares remain 54.69% below the 52-week high of €6.51 from September 2025. Market capitalisation is roughly €72 billion.

Analysts are split. Some see the EV spinoff as a genuine growth engine; others warn that massive investment in the auto division is draining cash reserves. The real test will come later in the third quarter, when Xiaomi opens order books for the SkyNomad N90. Whether the rally sticks depends on how quickly the memory chip logjam clears — and whether the higher-margin car business can compensate for what looks like a prolonged squeeze in the company’s original profit centre.