Xiaomi Stares Down 57% Stock Wipeout with Mega Buyback and Extended-Range EV Push

Xiaomi’s share price sinks 57% from 2025 high as buybacks fail to halt decline; Goldman warns on Q2, auto division loses 3.1B yuan in first quarter.

The disconnect between Xiaomi’s management and the stock market has rarely been starker. While the Chinese tech giant has been buying back shares at a furious pace—7.8 million shares on June 11 alone, its 70th such transaction this year—the share price keeps sinking. The stock closed at €2.87 on Thursday, a gut-wrenching 57% below the June 2025 high of €6.69. For the year, Xiaomi has now lost 36%, and over the past twelve months the decline exceeds 50%. The buyback program, which has already retired roughly 2.97 billion shares, may signal confidence and deep pockets, but the market is not listening.

Goldman Sachs poured cold water on any recovery hopes with a warning on June 10 that second-quarter results would disappoint. The relative strength index has been hovering around the 30 mark—with one reading at 30.2 and another at 29.8—putting the stock firmly in oversold territory. Yet technical conditions alone offer little comfort: the 50-day moving average at €3.33 still sits 14% above the current price, and the 200-day line at €4.25 is even further away. Oversold does not mean a bottom has been found, especially with a major analyst house lowering the bar on Q2 expectations before the numbers have even been released.

This latest buyback tranche cost the company HK$201.9 million, part of a broader program that authorises up to HK$20 billion in share repurchases over the coming months. The cash outlay is a clear bet that Xiaomi’s own assessment of its value is more accurate than the market’s. But the real headwinds are piling up from multiple directions. First-quarter profit plunged 57%, while revenue shrank to 99.1 billion yuan. The smartphone business—still the company’s core—saw global shipments drop 19.2%, though the average selling price hit a record 1,310 yuan, reflecting Xiaomi’s ongoing premium push. Costly memory chips and weak handset demand are squeezing margins.

Compounding the pressure is Xiaomi’s expensive pivot into electric vehicles. The automaking division posted a loss of 3.1 billion yuan in its first quarter of operations. Despite that, the company is doubling down. On Wednesday, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology granted production approval for extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs) under the new sub-brand “Skynomad.” The first model will be a large family SUV measuring over five metres long, with a pure-electric range of up to 500 kilometres. It is scheduled to hit the market in the second half of 2026, going head-to-head with established players like Li Auto and Aito. Xiaomi’s stated target for the year is still 550,000 vehicle deliveries—a bold number given the auto unit’s current losses and the broader slowdown in EV demand.

The transformation has created a classic dilemma: strategic ambition is high, but near-term operational momentum is weak. No buyback programme can permanently override fundamental scepticism, particularly when the next proving ground—the Q2 earnings report—remains ahead and Goldman Sachs has already set a low expectations bar. The stock tested a floor at €2.82 on Thursday, and whether that holds will depend not on how many shares Xiaomi repurchases but on whether it can beat those pessimistic forecasts. Until the second-quarter numbers land, the tug-of-war between management confidence and market distrust will define this stock’s direction.