Xiaomi’s Smartphone Ambitions Clash With EV Blues as Stock Hovers Near Floor

Xiaomi shares slump 36% in 2025 as EV losses mount and buyback fails, despite promising new smartphone models. Goldman warns of 50% profit decline.

The Chinese tech giant is serving up a mixed bag for investors. On one hand, leaked details of a next-generation smartphone and a monster-battery Redmi device signal a robust product pipeline. On the other, a struggling electric vehicle division, a massive buyback that has done little, and a profit warning are keeping the stock pinned near its 52-week low.

Shares in Xiaomi are changing hands at €2.88–2.89, barely a whisker above the year’s trough of €2.82. The stock has slumped roughly 36% since January, trading almost 57% below its 2025 peak of €6.69. The 200-day moving average sits at a distant €4.23, underscoring the depth of the downward drift. The relative strength index has fallen to 32, flirting with oversold territory — a level some traders interpret as a potential floor, though selling pressure shows no sign of easing.

Buyback Fails to Stem the Tide

Management has thrown the company’s balance sheet at the problem. Since early June, Xiaomi has been buying back Class B shares under the largest repurchase program in its history, authorising up to HK$20 billion. Millions of shares have already been retired. Yet the market has shrugged. The buyback has failed to arrest the slide, and the stock remains stubbornly near its lows.

The root cause is the automaking venture. For 2025, Xiaomi has set a delivery target of 550,000 vehicles. After five months, only about 150,000 units have been handed over — an alarming shortfall that leaves a mountain of volume to climb in the second half.

YU7 Sales Collapse Deepens Losses

The flagship SUV, the YU7, has been a particular weak spot. Monthly sales fell from nearly 38,000 in January to under 10,000 in April. The electric vehicle division posted an operating loss of 3.1 billion yuan in the first quarter alone. With losses mounting, any hope of a near-term profit contribution from the auto business looks dim.

A potential lifeline is an extended-range electric model under the new sub-brand Skynomad, priced aggressively at around 200,000 yuan. The public comment period with China’s MIIT ends on June 17, clearing a regulatory path. But the timing is tricky: industry-wide sales of such hybrids dropped by nearly a quarter in May, revealing a softening market. Xiaomi’s R&D spending jumped 33% year-on-year to 9 billion yuan in the first quarter, signalling no retreat from its automotive ambitions, but the payback remains uncertain.

Goldman Warns of 50% Profit Halving

Analysts are bracing for a grim second-quarter report, due in August. Goldman Sachs has warned that Xiaomi’s adjusted net profit could plunge by as much as 50% year-on-year. The warning adds to the weight on a stock that has already priced in considerable disappointment.

Fresh Smartphone Firepower

Amid the auto turmoil, Xiaomi’s core handset business is generating product news that could eventually revive sentiment. The flagship Xiaomi 18 — codenamed “Madrid” — has surfaced in the GSMA IMEI database with four model numbers covering China, India, Japan and global markets. The appearance suggests Xiaomi is planning a simultaneous worldwide launch, a departure from its historic staggered rollout. The device is expected in November 2026, powered by a Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 Pro chip and LPDDR6 RAM, with a display reportedly between 6.3 and 6.4 inches. There are rumours the “Ultra” variant may be dropped altogether as rising production costs squeeze margins.

Separately, details of the Redmi K100 have leaked from tipster “Digital Chat Station” on Weibo. It is said to feature a flat 185 Hz display, a mammoth battery of at least 8,000 mAh — far above current market norms — a Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 processor, a 200-megapixel camera and an ultrasonic fingerprint sensor. Xiaomi has not confirmed the specifications, but the leaks point to a device engineered to stand out in an increasingly crowded mid-range market.

The smartphone pipeline offers a narrative of strength and innovation, yet it competes for investor attention with the automotive drag. For the stock to stage a meaningful recovery, Xiaomi needs either the EV division to narrow its deficit quickly or the handset business to deliver a blockbuster that refocuses the market narrative. Until then, the buyback remains a costly gesture against a powerful headwind.