Xiaomi's Early 17T Debut and HK$20 Billion Buyback Can't Halt Stock's Slide as Q1 Profit Misses Estimates

Xiaomi Q1 net profit fell 43% to 6.1B yuan, missing estimates; stock hit 52-week low. Early T-series launch and HK$20B buyback announced amid rising R&D costs.

Xiaomi unleashed its earliest-ever T-series smartphone launch alongside a record share repurchase programme, yet the stock still plumbed a 52-week low after first-quarter adjusted net profit tumbled 43% to 6.1 billion yuan, falling short of the 6.4 billion yuan analysts had pencilled in. The shares closed at €3.08 in European trade on Friday, exactly matching the year's trough and 54% below the 12-month peak of €6.69. The stock has shed 46% over the past twelve months and is down roughly 31% since the start of 2026.

The profit crunch stemmed largely from a 19% decline in smartphone shipments to 33.8 million units – the steepest drop among the world's five largest handset makers, according to Omdia. Rising memory chip costs weighed heavily, with company president William Lu Weibing describing the higher prices as the "new normal" even as he predicted some relief from the third quarter. R&D spending nonetheless jumped 33% to 9.0 billion yuan, and the number of R&D staff hit a record above 26,000 as Xiaomi continued to plough resources into AI, AIoT, and its nascent electric-vehicle business.

On the product front, the global roll-out of the 17T series on 28 May marked the earliest T-series debut in the company's history – launching some four months ahead of the 15T's September 2025 arrival. Both models now feature a Leica-developed 5x periscope telephoto lens with 50 megapixels, previously reserved for the Pro variant. The base 17T, priced at €749, runs on a Dimensity 8500 chip with a 6,500 mAh battery, while the €999 Pro model packs a Dimensity 9500 processor, a 7,000 mAh unit supporting 100-watt charging, and 8K video capture for the first time in the T-line. A new "Leica Live Moment" function records short clips before the shutter is pressed, allowing full-quality stills to be extracted afterwards.

Management is also turning to shareholder-friendly measures. On 26 May, Xiaomi announced a new on-market repurchase programme of up to HK$20 billion, subject to approval at the annual general meeting in Beijing on Tuesday, 2 June. The previous buyback scheme had already been exhausted, with the company spending around HK$14.6 billion to repurchase nearly 400 million Class-B shares. The AGM will also vote on the audited accounts for 2025, the re-election of directors, and the reappointment of the auditor – but the buyback mandate is the item most watched by investors.

The underlying strength of Xiaomi's ecosystem remains a counterpoint to the weak earnings. As of 31 March, roughly 1.12 billion IoT devices were connected to its platform, with 23.6 million users owning five or more devices. Monthly active users reached 746 million, providing a large base for software-driven monetisation. Unconfirmed reports suggest the next iteration of Xiaomi's HyperOS – rumoured to be HyperOS 4, built on Android 17 – could introduce a software-only "Privacy Display" feature, a move that would differentiate it from Samsung's hardware-based solution.

To retain key talent in the critical fields of AI, smartphones, AIoT, and EVs, Xiaomi distributed approximately 52.5 million stock awards to 3,626 employees and service providers on 27 May. Issued at a price of zero and vesting until May 2030, the awards had a gross value of roughly HK$1.49 billion based on that day's closing price. Meanwhile, the company's European EV rollout is scheduled for the second half of 2027, starting in Germany. Chart-wise, the technical picture remains grim: the relative strength index stands at 70.2, signalling overbought conditions even as prices fall, and the stock trades more than 30% below its 200-day moving average. This week's Caixin manufacturing and services PMI readings will offer the next clues on the health of Xiaomi's home market, but with first sales data from the 17T series still weeks away, the immediate catalyst for a turnaround remains elusive.