Wegovy Pill’s Blockbuster Debut Masks a Deeper Squeeze at Novo Nordisk

Novo Nordisk shares jump 8% as oral Wegovy prescriptions double estimates, but underlying US pricing pressure masks mixed Q1 results.

Investors breathed a collective sigh of relief on Wednesday as Novo Nordisk’s stock surged more than 8% in Copenhagen morning trading, climbing to €39.13. The rally, which has now pushed the shares up 23% over the past month, marks a sharp recovery from the stock’s recent 52-week trough. The trigger? A blockbuster start for the company’s oral Wegovy pill and a modest upgrade to full-year guidance.

But beneath the headline numbers lies a more complicated picture. The Danish pharma giant reported first-quarter revenue of 96.82 billion Danish kroner, a 24% increase, while operating profit jumped 54%. Those figures, however, were flattered by a one-off accounting gain: the release of a large provision tied to a US pricing program. Strip that out, and currency-adjusted revenue actually contracted 4%, with operating profit declining 6%.

The culprit is pricing pressure in the United States, where lower selling prices for GLP-1 medicines ate into the strong volume growth. The dynamic has created a split-screen narrative — commercial success colliding with a deteriorating pricing environment.

The Pill That Changed the Math

The standout performer was unquestionably the oral version of Wegovy. Since its US launch in early January, the pill has racked up more than 2 million prescriptions, including roughly 1.3 million in the first quarter alone. Revenue from the tablet reached 2.26 billion kroner, roughly double what analysts had penciled in.

CEO Mike Doustdar described the launch as a clear inflection point, noting that the Wegovy brand now commands 65% of all new prescriptions in the US obesity market. Early data suggests Eli Lilly’s rival oral GLP-1, Foundayo, has failed to make a dent so far, with prescription volumes trailing well behind Wegovy. Doustdar also pushed back against fears that the pill would cannibalize sales of the injectable version, arguing the two formats complement each other.

The strong demand has prompted management to nudge its full-year outlook higher. Novo Nordisk now expects currency-adjusted revenue and operating profit to decline between 4% and 12%, compared with the previous forecast range of 4% to 13%. The change is modest — the lower end of the range remains unchanged — and analysts at Jefferies were quick to downplay its significance, calling the adjustment an insufficient catalyst for further upside.

Pipeline Progress and the Next Catalyst

Beyond the commercial story, Novo Nordisk notched several regulatory wins. The US Food and Drug Administration approved Wegovy HD, a higher-dose injectable version, earlier this spring. The agency also greenlit Awiqli, a once-weekly basal insulin for diabetes, with a US launch penciled in for the second half of 2026.

The competitive battle with Eli Lilly for dominance of the multi-billion-dollar obesity market shows no signs of cooling. Novo Nordisk will present fresh clinical data at the European Obesity Congress in Istanbul from May 12 to 15, a event that could provide the next major catalyst for the stock. Investors will be watching closely for evidence that the oral Wegovy’s early momentum can be sustained — and whether the pricing headwinds that tainted the first-quarter results prove temporary or structural.