Washington Targets German Drug Prices: Bayer’s Stock Stalls at a Key Level as a Trade Probe and Multiple Catalysts Loom

Bayer shares rebound to 50-day moving average but face US Section 301 investigation into German drug pricing. Acquisition of Perfuse Therapeutics strengthens eye care pipeline.

Bayer’s shares have climbed back to their 50-day moving average, but a fresh political headwind from Washington threatens to cap further gains. The US Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, has launched a Section 301 investigation into Germany’s pharmaceutical pricing policies, accusing Berlin of disadvantaging American patients and manufacturers. The probe follows months of inconclusive talks between the two governments, triggered by Berlin’s planned cost-cutting package for statutory health insurance that aims to close a roughly €20 billion hole. A Bundestag vote on the measure has been pushed back to July 2026, leaving Bayer and other German drugmakers exposed to potential US retaliation. Public comments from Washington are expected in August, with a hearing set for September.

The investigation poses a concrete risk to Bayer’s North American margins. The group operates key development and production sites in Germany, and any punitive tariffs on German pharmaceuticals would force a recalculation of its transatlantic profitability. The stock – which ended last week at €37.81, exactly on its 50-day average – has risen 2.1% on Friday and nearly 5% over the past seven trading days. Yet the year-to-date performance remains close to flat, and the shares have recouped more than 50% from their 52-week low of €25.09.

Amid the political uncertainty, Bayer has completed a long-awaited acquisition. On 17 June, the company closed the takeover of Perfuse Therapeutics, a biopharmaceutical firm focused on ophthalmology. The upfront consideration was $300 million, with the total deal value potentially reaching $2.45 billion through milestone payments. Bayer now holds full rights to PER-001, an intravitreal implant for sustained drug delivery that is in Phase II trials for glaucoma and diabetic retinopathy. The transaction strengthens the group’s biopharma portfolio and signals a strategic push into eye care.

The acquisition, however, is not the only legal matter on Bayer’s plate. The company is locked in a patent dispute with Johnson & Johnson over prostate cancer drugs. Bayer alleges that J&J is promoting its product Erleada as superior to Bayer’s Nubeqa based on a flawed real-world analysis. An amended lawsuit was filed on 15 June, seeking a permanent injunction and damages. That case adds to a packed court calendar that also includes the long-awaited Supreme Court ruling on glyphosate claims, which could either end years of litigation uncertainty or prolong it.

From a technical perspective, the stock is now perched at a decisive juncture. The relative strength index stands at 55.8, indicating neutral-to-slightly bullish sentiment. To confirm an upward breakout, Bayer needs to clear the resistance zone between €39.50 and €41.50. The coming week will provide directional cues from both sides of the Atlantic: German ifo business sentiment and GfK consumer confidence figures, alongside US data including PCE inflation, GDP revisions and durable goods orders. A string of positive numbers could fuel the breakout attempt; disappointment would likely extend the consolidation phase.

Bayer’s near-term outlook is thus a blend of technical opportunity and external risks. The trade probe, the Supreme Court decision and the ongoing legal skirmish with J&J all converge in a period when the stock is testing a key average – making the next few weeks critical for both the chart and the corporate agenda.